Sunday, October 28, 2007

MCHI Property Fair 2007

The games start now!


I saw a very humble picture of Mumbai's Real Estate market, the rates have gone down, a good 10%-15%.


The projects still stuck with the same rates as earlier were desolate devoid of any visitors, the ones' that were rocking were projects which have taken into account the fact that the average Indian doesnt earn 75 lacs a year!
Some of the properties which have been around forever, are obviously not willing to learn from economics, that ballons can be blown to their capacity, but not any further.
May god help the countless people who are gonna be stuck with debts higher than the value of their flats, either that, or may lord have mercy on me coz I do not wish to buy no flat in these boiling water.



Tuesday, October 16, 2007

SEBI Proposes Tighter Rules on P-Notes: Catch the bull by its' Horns

Securities & Exchange Board of India has issues a draft document proposing tightening of noose around the "FII" inflow into the country off the back of P-Notes.

As discussed earlier, this route is no doubt used by the mafia, underworld, corrupt politicians and likely hawala operators under the guise of "FII" investment. The total anonymity in such transactions opens a Pandora's Box, as Occams' Razor suggests, the simplest explanation is often the truth.

If my vote counts, please re-consider banning P-Notes in totality. If not, then please make this draft into a directive asap.

Thank You SEBI, RBI & FM...please save India from this menace.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Ban Outdated Rickshaws & Taxis in Mumbai

Mumbai roads have been ruled by Taxis and Rickshaws for over three decades now. Today we are living in a city trying to establish an image on a global stage. Some of the worlds richest people live in this city, moreover the city houses establishments that have become a rage on the global investment front. We are seeing broad developments in the city, be it the roads, the trains, eateries, fashion circuit, airports, hotels et al. But sadly there is one "cancer" that is choking Mumbai to its' death.

According to this report on Mumbai's Pollution, the levels of Carbon Monoxide (CO), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) & Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) are way beyond acceptable limits in inhabited placed. Other contaminants such as Lead (Pb) and Oxides of Nitrogen are also found in increasingly larger quantities.

There is no doubt that Mumbai's pollution is due to the rapid growth of Automobiles, and the continued usage of dilapidated trucks and vehicles especially Rickshaws and Taxis. What we need is a blanket ban on these, or at the very least trim them to about 10% of their current numbers. Here's why

Taxi
1. Taxi operators are using vehicles manufactured a minimum 20 years ago. Moreover, the vehicles are no longer receiving genuine parts, and one wonders how the engine behaves when its' been subjected to unbranded/customizations.
2. Taxis offer "Zero" ride-quality. These vehicles are having very tough rubber tyres, and the rides in pot-holed areas, or even slight level mismatches on a concrete road are pretty rough. We pay a great amount of money for this?
3. Arrogant Taxi drivers of Mumbai are folklore.
4. Most taxis are sluggish due to conversion to CNG, but their arrogant, uneducated and unmannered drivers always believe in driving on the fast lane (Right Lanes). Some taxi drivers are also known to mix
Kerosene with petrol, causing horrible SPM pollution.
5. There are so many taxis' which either do not have a functional headlight or a tail-light or the turn-indicator lights. Some do not have either in working condition. I sincerely wonder why is fact tolerated by the RTO?
6. A quick chat-survey of Taxi-Utilization, reveals that a Taxi may get two or maximum three "bhaadas" every day, requiring one or two hours of driving. However, the driver needs to hunt his fish the whole of 10-12 hours (mostly waiting in queues) to be able to meet this figure. It means on an average a Taxi has only 8%-10% utilization.
7. The union holds the entire city at ransom through their strikes.
8. Whenever citizens really need the Taxi's services, the taxi operators invariably try to rob the person blind. Best examples were 26/7, or whenever sub-train services are disrupted.

Rickshaw
1. The rickshaws are a symbol of Indian Entrepreneurship gone horribly wrong. We have given rise to this ugly animal in our own backyard, courtesy the greed and vision (illusion) of one man. The very purpose of a rickshaw is to provide a low-cost carrier to the common man. Rickshaw fare is almost 82% of a Taxi fare. Are rickshaws' really serving their purpose?
2. Rickshaw drivers are the most notorious drivers in Mumbai. There are a few strict "NO"s that are taught in driving schools, but probably as means of getting back at the society, a rickshaw driver not only practices them, but has ingenious ways to invent more.
3. Ride quality in Taxis' is bad, but in a Rickshaw, its' even worse. The small wheelbase results in serious jolts, add to that the whims and fancies of its' seat designers which range from wooden planks to the cheapest train seat.
4. The three wheel approach lends to a very unstable platform. I've myself been involved in a rickshaw toppling incident, and witnessed atleast 2 of them (No injuries, just bruises). Add to that the fact that a rickshaw is driven along three parallel lines, thus making avoidance of potholes a nightmare. A driver usually takes care not to involve the front wheel in a pothole, the other wheels lead to heads bangs (to begin with) or even miscarriages at the extreme.
5. Rickshaw drivers are known to pick-up fights in a haste, and are a menace to society.

The sooner the powers in question realize these, the earlier we can take Mumbai to a far cleaner, and brighter city.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Visit to Bombay Stock Exchange

There are two phases in every mumbaikar's life. First, when he's not yet come across the charisma, grandeur and the sheer power to challenge and alter your destiny. And the next one, is when you have visited the Bombay Stock Exchange, and interacted with the very men that made it one of the oldest financial benchmarks of Indian Economy.

Okay, I'm still in a kind of daze, about how I could stay away from the stock markets for so long, especially when all indicators were screaming out loud at even putting in pension funds into the stock market.

The reason I happened to visit the stock market was to attend a course on "Fundamental Analysis" at the BSE Training Institute (19th Floor). The course provides a completely fresh perspective into how stock markets need to be approached. An over-whelming feeling that almost took me over towards the end of this session, I literally felt like an ostrich with his head buried into the ground. The few important pointers I gathered from the course were, always study the true worth (Valuation) of a company, before deciding to invest in one. The markets always come around to respect that figure. Keep a keen eye on what the promoters are upto, Indians are criminals when it comes to integrity, and the course covered a lot of examples of such family businesses. Essar group, Naresh Goyal, Great Eastern being a few of them. Another key perspective, which I guess I was not prepared for, was the depth of insight that one needs to have on the economy to make sound / logical calls.

As regards the venue, what I must recommend to anyone who reads this + lives in Mumbai, is to take this or any other course. The view one gets of south bombay, the financial HQ of India and above all, the opportunity to meet the ex-president / leading brokers of BSE is once in a lifetime.
Left: View atop the BSE, overlooking the Gateway of India, Museum and other such landmarks. (Click for a full-size image)

A few things that have indeed unchanged even after LPG has hit us hard, plus since the FIIs and other institutions come together to challenge the dominance of BSE in the form of NSE are the love of money. The whiff of opportunity strikes you as soon as you enter the building.

My sincere Thanks, to every broker, dealer and member of Bombay Stock Exchange. Thanks for making the place I was born in, so respectable, and so desirable!
Below: Video of the brand new ticker and screen courtesy BSE and NDTV Profit

Friday, October 05, 2007

Indian Railways: A bed of roses for Corruption

Its' incredible, how our Finance Minister talks about bringing in all unaccounted wealth under tax-purview, how the proliferation of black economy is hurting us bad at the world-stage. But does he ever question / ask for income details of the thousands of Ticket Collectors operating in Indian Railways?

They are Corrupt, beyond imagination!

I have no words to describe the very means a (dis)respectful Ticket Collector employs and literally make you pay for your desperation or dire needs.

I think this species of humans ought to be classified separately, as their corruption is so blatant and public, its shameful that no one ever does anything about it. Its' about time each Ticket Collector & his spendings are monitored carefully, and the guilty ones (Most likely all of them) are made porters in the same town that they live in.

The modus operandi is very simple, Indian Railways, under the leadership of the worlds worst human being-cum-politician, issues far more wait-listed tickets than are ever possible to be filled. Inspite of having paid the entire amount, the TC then charges his own fees (in cash) to allocate a vacant berth to a wait-listed passenger.

It is a usual sight to see old men with balding / grey heads asking for Rs. 100 almost as easily as a beggar does at signals. But like I said, this is a different species altogether, shameless, humans ready to make a easy buck for virtually a brain-less job. They do absolutely no service whatsoever, the computerised ticketing system does an excellent job of grouping and allocating passengers well, but the illusions of progress are shattered the day one sees the Railway Ticket Collector going around asking society to pay him coz, he aint capable of earning it himself.

Dollar at 30 - by 2008

My earliest memory goes back upto Rs. 13/$, but those were golden days' when India was almost self-reliant, and license raj was still allowed, that was 1988.

Not for long, the worlds' most idiotic political party got elected (barely) and decided to do something that silly minds always do. Disturb a calm lake, and ever since all hell broke loose, Rupee hit an all-time low of Rs. 49/$, that was 1998.

But even bad things dont stay forever, the Reserve Bank of India (Mom's bank), and apparently even the Finance Ministry decided to stop "pegging" the rupee to a basket and let it free...and free it has been. After a few hiccups, the rupee is sailing, we've witnessed an unprecedented rise in the rupee against the dollar over the last few days, a lot of it due to the largesse of funds being poured into India by "FIIs" (Read black-marketeers & underworld and yeah of-course genuine FIIs as well).

So how far would it go? Some experts have suggested a long-term stability around Rs. 38/$ and some around Rs. 35/$. But that's an experts' suggestion...its' bound to be a bit conservative, that's one limitation one doesnt have while blogging, so assuming a 10%-15% leeway, we can safely expect the dream Rs. 30/$ somewhere around mid next year or at the very worst towards 2008-Q4.

For such a possibility, we need to pump in money into the stock market, however there is one bother, the real-estate sector is a black-hole that's threatening to take away the free-capital available in the market currently.

For some reason, I keep remembering the quote Uday Kotak made towards end of 2006 - "Americans sustained a 10-Year bull run, there is no reason why we cannot better it". Amen to that sir!

OK if it does happen where does it lead us?
A. To a far, more important role in world-politics!
B. Will boost the Indian travellers' budget plans...expect New York to be lined with bhel-puri stalls soon...that would be a sight ;)
C. Oil-pool deficit reduction, but dont see it lasting for long though.
D. Depressed exporters - to hell with you, the country doesnt need to support you forever...
E. A shaken IT industry, forget the cheap-labour bargain guys, sell its' intelligence. I can say with experience we are at-par, if not better with the best on the planet.
F. Kotak Mahindra taking over Goldman Sachs (!!!)
G. Reliance buying all Fortune-500 oil companies outside India.
H. Subhiksha takes over Walmart!

Ok, last three are just wishful thoughts, though its' not impossible...Tata Steel did acquire Corus, so the rumblings have begun. But this is possible (if ever) only if Indian rupee continues its' surge against the dollar, and the US successfully plans its incursions into Iran or Venezuela, or at the very least gets' its Petrodollars alive and kicking again.