Monday, April 14, 2008

Inflation + IIP + Credit Cruch = Black Tuesday

What a week it's gonna be, expect the "leaders" to be down by 5%-7%, this on the back of some grave dangers that Indian Economy seems to be entering. Already there are news about "Food Riots" happening in various countries being reported by CNN (not a frivolous channel like Times Now or IBN-Vernacs etc.)

The earlier post about IIP hits home the underlying dangers lurking disclosure around 12-May. The Inflation has not only taken the steam out of the market, the FM+PM dream team appears exhausted by the unrelenting challenges thrown at the. By all accounts it appears to be in vain, rather like the last ditch efforts by a ship-crew trying to plug far more holes in it's walls than they possibly could imagine.

The farmers' subsidy, that golden liquidity, India has at its' disposal is about to be dispersed, and will be sucked away within days by hoarders, black-marketeers and politicians alike. Furthermore, credit-crunch all over the world means a 5% fall in Shanghai Composite, and a 3.5% one for HangSeng.

Wait and watch as the gloom of tuesday catches one and all on possibly the turning point of Indias' Bull Run.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Remembering Timothy Treadwell

Timothy Treadwell, a person who made a huge impression on wildlife enthusiasts all over the world, is remembered with fondness today, not for the controversy, or the tragic end, but for a way of life he discovered that billions never would. Stepping over that line that separates us - ordinary mortals - from that *something* that takes us ever so close to nature.

Leading the way with example, his unconventional approach to humanity and wildlife is as refreshing as most great people I've read about, alas he lived in times, where humans are hell bent on breaking the rules of nature and very little recognition goes by way of people who take the path less travelled.

I know you found peace, and pray that I find mine. Rest well.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Euphoria over IIP: Welcome to Fool's Paradise

7.4%

That's the latest inflation figure!

However as always, the business news channels are going ga-ga over the superlative performance of Indian Industrial Production in February. Hence its' worthwhile ruminating on the reality behind this numbers.

A. Overall growth, as shown in the sheet, is actually above the September 2007 mark in only 5 out of the 20 odd sectors, that means compared with September 2007 almost 15 sectors have either gone flat or bust. However, capital goods have indeed bucked the trend, and emerged as a sector with some real positive outflow. That's partially because government spending and most likely due to capacity planning initiatives for the next financial year. Overall, the gloom has only got darker. We did witness a slowdown in feb last year as well, which was cyclical, but this time its more genuine and almost out of the blue.

B. Sectoral: Manufacturing, is the darling of all industries, its' witnessing a major correction. Isnt a growing sector supposed to be going up? Comparing the feb numbers to last year same time, is correct, but factually speaking, we have declined over the feb figures as well.

The story of growth is highly debatable in the Indian context, especially given the fact that 70% Indians still earn Rs. 35 or less per day, and almost the same percentage spend less than Rs. 20 per day or less. That means the merely ensuring that they are sustained is gonna become a huge challenge

What it means for the common man is that, life just got tougher still. The government doesnt care a damn about the majority of its' populace, and is hell-bent on making India a capitalist country. Forget the government, the statistical organisation has presented charcoal in form that it almost might pass off as a diamond. A look around will clearly tell you what the real situation is. Real estate is booming, sucking away capital meant to fuel this growth. The serious growth inhibitor that it has become needs to be understood by the modern day government.

Today Kapil Sibal can go on air and talk about China having 8+ inflation and also cite that other third world counties are also going through the same inflation worries. However, one shudders to think what might happen if Oil crosses $120 and Indian government in its' bid to perform well at the next elections forgets its' fundamental duty - of sowing the seeds of a free market - and instead indulges in exceses to farmers and alike.

It's really a shame we are in such a situation inspite of 3 notable economist minds being at the helm. Let's hope and pray they get their policies right, and in connivance with the ever smart RBI help us ride this tide.

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Positive Atheism

A MUST READ

Beautiful article, that goes into an in-depth analysis of what Atheism (Acceptance of Reality), is all about. It's not about disrespecting God, NO! Its' all about realising and recognising the bare and hard facts, and then living a life with that knowledge in a positive way.

Review: Dum Laga Ke - Malad, Link Road

I discovered this restaurant by chance, when we ordered biryanis at my friends place. To my sweet surprise, the biryani's were not the messy ghevda based ones, but authentic mughlai biryanis. Then, one friday, we all decided to eat out for lunch, and that was my second visit. That day, I had Egg Biryani (Tawa-Style), and have had the same 3 more times in the last two weeks.

Besides the above, there is a good variety of biryanis', tandoor based items, and a lot of the non-vegetarian stuff, which my dad loved. Me, being a lacto-ovo veggie, had to satisfy myself with just Egg biryani, paneer biryani and veg biryani.

Bottomline, if you love your biryanis', this place is a must visit.

A word of caution, this place is supposedly a franchisee of Borivali Biryani Center (BBC), but BBC is far worse than Dum Laga Ke, in terms of quality, and service.