That's the latest inflation figure!
However as always, the business news channels are going ga-ga over the superlative performance of Indian Industrial Production in February. Hence its' worthwhile ruminating on the reality behind this numbers.
A. Overall growth, as shown in the sheet, is actually above the September 2007 mark in only 5 out of the 20 odd sectors, that means compared with September 2007 almost 15 sectors
have either gone flat or bust. However, capital goods have indeed bucked the trend, and emerged as a sector with some real positive outflow. That's partially because government spending and most likely due to capacity planning initiatives for the next financial year. Overall, the gloom has only got darker. We did witness a slowdown in feb last year as well, which was cyclical, but this time its more genuine and almost out of the blue.
B.
Sectoral: Manufacturing, is the darling of all industries, its' witnessing a major correction. Isnt a growing sector supposed to be going up? Comparing the feb numbers to last year same time, is correct, but factually speaking, we have declined over the feb figures as well.The story of growth is highly debatable in the Indian context, especially given the fact that 70% Indians still earn Rs. 35 or less per day, and almost the same percentage spend less than Rs. 20 per day or less. That means the merely ensuring that they are sustained is gonna become a huge challenge
What it means for the common man is that, life just got tougher still. The government doesnt care a damn about the majority of its' populace, and is hell-bent on making India a capitalist country. Forget the government, the statistical organisation has presented charcoal in form that it almost might pass off as a diamond. A look around will clearly tell you what the real situation is. Real estate is booming, sucking away capital meant to fuel this growth. The serious growth inhibitor that it has become needs to be understood by the modern day government.
Today Kapil Sibal can go on air and talk about China having 8+ inflation and also cite that other third world counties are also going through the same inflation worries. However, one shudders to think what might happen if Oil crosses $120 and Indian government in its' bid to perform well at the next elections forgets its' fundamental duty - of sowing the seeds of a free market - and instead indulges in exceses to farmers and alike.
It's really a shame we are in such a situation inspite of 3 notable economist minds being at the helm. Let's hope and pray they get their policies right, and in connivance with the ever smart RBI help us ride this tide.
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