CRR & Repo-rate actions of RBI

Dr. Y.V.Reddy announced the Credit Policy, and boy did the markets react or what? 550 points shaved off, and Udayan Mukherjee, the ever-optimistic bull, sounded gloomy for the first time I must add, in the years that I've followed him.

The last thng India needed was a tighter environment for equities, and th RBI with its' CPR actions has done just that. Interestingly Dr. Reddy outlined the following three reasons for Inflation:
1. Supply-side shortages - Fiscal policy issue.
2. Demand-side shortages - Monetary policy issue
3. "High-availability" of credit - Monetary policy issue

What he did not mention is the weighttages or the percentage contributions to Inflation of the above. Mr. FM has already clamped down on futures market in most food-grains like rice, oil etc. Besides the export of most of the "inflationary" commodities is already either banned completely or is curbed substantially.

The demand-side is where the action lies. By artificially inducing an environment to spend less, by making consumers pay much more (opportunity costs) for items is depriving the nation of consumerism. Why not simply remove the subsidies on farming and let the market then pay for the same? Inflation is a right-ful concern, but so are the basic needs of this generation!

Lastly, the diversion of funds from the sytem into the bank safe would mean the same, everyone has to shell out much more just so that poor sections can afford commodities that are having an intrinsic high value. That India is turning out to b a clamp for people with aspirations is very clear from the current actions of the RBI. This country is for labourers and black-money-proponents. Any other section is just meant for sucking value out of, to feed the classes above.

Highly disappointing day for the Indian Growth Story.

That's the way the cookie crumbles

Inflation @ 12%
IIP @ < 8% (!!!)
Crude @ $130 (Riding down from $150)
Sensex @ 13K
Nifty @ 3850

What a story it has been in the last 35-40 days. Its' been all the way down south for all the bulls, their horns and their hoofs. Its' a no-hold-barred contest to hit rock bottom.

When even amateur economy watchers such as me can predict an imminent fall such as the one above, it becomes amply clear that bubbles and media-hype are true realities in todays day and age. Why even Idli-Dosa-Sambaram was tom-tomming his "de-coupling" theory, and one bull-rally (a hedge agasint the falling $ really) in crude & other commodities, and voila he forgets how "de-coupling" is even spelt.

What a dream team we had...but I guess they took the dream part too seriously, they kept dreaming while the Indian boat sailed through calm waters and into a torrential storm in the midst of no-where.

Good Luck in Elections!!!

Euphoria over IIP: Welcome to Fool's Paradise

7.4%

That's the latest inflation figure!

However as always, the business news channels are going ga-ga over the superlative performance of Indian Industrial Production in February. Hence its' worthwhile ruminating on the reality behind this numbers.

A. Overall growth, as shown in the sheet, is actually above the September 2007 mark in only 5 out of the 20 odd sectors, that means compared with September 2007 almost 15 sectors have either gone flat or bust. However, capital goods have indeed bucked the trend, and emerged as a sector with some real positive outflow. That's partially because government spending and most likely due to capacity planning initiatives for the next financial year. Overall, the gloom has only got darker. We did witness a slowdown in feb last year as well, which was cyclical, but this time its more genuine and almost out of the blue.

B. Sectoral: Manufacturing, is the darling of all industries, its' witnessing a major correction. Isnt a growing sector supposed to be going up? Comparing the feb numbers to last year same time, is correct, but factually speaking, we have declined over the feb figures as well.

The story of growth is highly debatable in the Indian context, especially given the fact that 70% Indians still earn Rs. 35 or less per day, and almost the same percentage spend less than Rs. 20 per day or less. That means the merely ensuring that they are sustained is gonna become a huge challenge

What it means for the common man is that, life just got tougher still. The government doesnt care a damn about the majority of its' populace, and is hell-bent on making India a capitalist country. Forget the government, the statistical organisation has presented charcoal in form that it almost might pass off as a diamond. A look around will clearly tell you what the real situation is. Real estate is booming, sucking away capital meant to fuel this growth. The serious growth inhibitor that it has become needs to be understood by the modern day government.

Today Kapil Sibal can go on air and talk about China having 8+ inflation and also cite that other third world counties are also going through the same inflation worries. However, one shudders to think what might happen if Oil crosses $120 and Indian government in its' bid to perform well at the next elections forgets its' fundamental duty - of sowing the seeds of a free market - and instead indulges in exceses to farmers and alike.

It's really a shame we are in such a situation inspite of 3 notable economist minds being at the helm. Let's hope and pray they get their policies right, and in connivance with the ever smart RBI help us ride this tide.

Please not Lehman Brothers!

The US Markets are in a bad mood, Sunday was Bear Stearns, today there are loud rumors about Lehman Brothers, no less. Apparently, DBS Bank has circulated an internal email barring its' employees from taking fresh positions with LEH as the the counter party.

This and the fresh memory of Bear Stearns, and the remarkably resemblance of LEH to BSC's last two weeks has triggered a major sellof in LEH stock. However one particular news that may calm the markets is that the Feds latest move will enable even Investment Banks to avail of emergency funding from FED similiar to what commercial banks enjoy today. That will certainly help LEH get that crucial short-term backing. Tomorrow, would be a crucial day for LEH, when they announce their Q1 earnings. My sincere hopes are pinned on some solid positive news from LEH about their performance in Q1'08.

Bear Stearns Bailout

What a story! The blue-eyed boy is in trouble!

There's a high-possibility of 17-March-2007 being the blackest Monday on the bourses worldwide. Bear Stearns is facing a basic issue, it doesn't have money to pay back investors. The long-term outlook for BS is not so bleak, however 17-March & 27-March would be two significant days in the history of this bank.

Back home, India does seem fairly decoupled, except being pulled into the acute liquidity crunch that the world is facing. It may not be a bad time, to relook at some of our own practices. Indian Realty prices have moved more than 3X over 2003 base, which if they havent already, make Indian banks seriously revalue the impact of their housing portfolio. ICICI bank, already reported upto $250m losses in sub-prime related issues. Indian story is good, solid but the termite attack has started, more than anything the FM's "decoupling" theory is gonna be seriously tested soon.

Whatever happens, I sincerely do hope that Bear Stearns rides this uncomfortable times unscathed. Else, lets' be prepared for a worldwide-market blood bath.

Nifty: Meter Down!

Nifty is Falling and no, its' not me, or my wishful thinking. Rather its' a sad realization that we are not there yet. A 25% fall doesnt quite happen in a matter to 10 business days, not in the developed markets , atleast not unless there is something fundamentally wrong in the economy.

Ironically the market is going down without any domestic reason. There is no doubt that with oil hitting $ 107+/barrel, inflation is gonna have a field day in India. A country, where oil prices are controlled, will be in for some really interesting political games in the offing. Its' hardly 10 months for the official elections, and anyones' guess on the number of actual days.

With this background and a weak Congress, I see NO support for the markets from here on, the Rs.1 bn cash kitty with Reliance Mutual Fund, or the collective Rs.10 bn (guess) with the Indian MFs. They are gonna let FIIs make some handsome returns.

The redemption pressure on MFs is likely to begin post-march, once the tax seasons' over, people are gonna take one hard look at the disappointing sensex, and likely to cash in / book their profits. Another looming crisis is the real-estate bubble. Where is the support for real-estate prices in a falling market. I see a crisis, if the real-estate even cracks by 15%, thats gonna make banks shiver in their pants. Its' likely that overall Home-loan portfolio in India, given its' overall rating, is no better than the sub-prime borrowers in the US. It's just that in US, atleast they are known to be sub-prime, in India, they are all within wraps.

Overall a very interesting situation is panning out, day traders are gonna have one helluva party. Enjoy your earnings season, Mr. Bear.

Definition of a Finance Minister: P.Chidambaram

What a Man!

Sir P.Chidambaram, he represents soneone that probably every business studen dream of...right at the top of the pyramid. The sole King of the most vibrant economy on this planet, making him the true governor of the fate of this earth.

No exaggerations, I am truly awed by the phenomenal magic show brought to life by Sir PC. And NO, I'm not talking about the 2008-09 budget, it was a damp squid, probably constrained by the petty political partners of Congress and its' own ranks. But, for all observers, there was one truly savouring experience of watching a Man blessed with wisdom, passion and a true sense of bold-spirit go about his job in the most professional manner known in this country since ages.

If Laloo is hailed by some firang university, it probably just proves that the west is already brain drained, they have no clue where the blast force of India lies, they are instead left praising her exhaust pipes.

Here is a man, who being a lawyer and a politician slashed the daylights out of self-propagated business news channels. Anyone who wanted proof why business channels should be watched in mute mode (perhaps only as a cheap replacement to BloomBerg or the likes) the post-budget interviews by Raghav Behl, NDTV Lead Anchor (who atleast got a finance brain with him) and the Zee Business News anchor (she's most likely to resign) only made it ever so clear.

One is left wonderiing, if only India had 520 more Sir P.Chidambarams, then India would not only hit that coveted double digit growth, but would so quickly become the best place to live on this planet.

Thank you very much, for being India's Finance Minister.

Indian sub-prime crisis in the making?

Stock markets have fallen, (for good) by about 25-30% in the last fortnight. Thats' still early days, we are yet to catch-up with the complete sell-off targets, that FIIs and the real movers of Indian markets have on their minds. It's quite obvious that the very liquidity that is hitting the markets is very much locked in the highly over-valued real estate market.

Unless this liquidity is unlocked, there is very to no hope in getting the liquidity back into the system.

However, it should be noted that unless people realize that fundamentally, when a miniscule apartment sells for 1/2 a million, its' time to leave either the city, or the markets.

Whenver the liquidity in real-estate is triggered, rest assured that Indian banks are gonna start announcing losses just like their US counterparts. Remember, even Indian banks have been dispensing 90% loans, even a 10-15% fall in real-estate might trigger an amazing real-estate crisis, rather a banking crisis, watch out, we are very close, and the ice is wafer thin ahead.

Dear FM, PM, et. al: Leave the Capital Market Alone

Why is Indian Government trying to bail out an super highly sold, unviable and unprofitable Capital Market?

Indian Government and the Finance Ministry need to answer this question, in the most candid manner possible. They owe it to the millions of people who do not have demat a/cs but still pay VAT, the millions of salaried class government employees earning a pittance while still paying income tax.

Why does the government want to lose the precious capital, and help FIIs earn far better returns instead of waiting for the deluge to be over. By constantly baby-sitting the stock markets, the government is encouraging callous investors. Why is LIC investing in bear markets, by using investor money, when they never pay more to policy holder on the back of a bull market.

Farmers kill themselves for the want of pity amounts, and the government turns a blind eye. Come FIIs in trouble, and greedy "investors" wanting support to book profits, the DIIs come in an bail them out.

Indian market is just that a creche for rich and HNIs, it is far far away from being a free and fair open market.

Black Monday - 21Jan2008

Indian Markets can excite you more than any reality show or sports t.v. ever can. Today was one such days, the numbers themselves probably spell disaster, however once you start imagining the carnage in the lives of those unfortunate ones who were highly leveraged in this bull market, it dawns on you as one of the biggest reality shows in the nation.

There were punters, horse-traders, and pure betters who were begining to take hold of Indian Markets, and would go home tonight to lick their wounds and perhaps with the knowledge that Indian Markets are just that, another set of emerging markets where mayhem and chaos rules roost.

Watching the action live as it unfolded was extremely exciting, but seeing 21-Jan being permanently etched in Indian Stock Market history was extremely satisfying too. For the record I lost about Rs. 5K held in ULIP, but I can afford to smile. Not many can.

The usual set of monkeys were freely making predictions about the future, and how the markets will bounce back. These shameless experts are only good at reading numbers that are past-tense, to even take their word about the future is foolhardy. Its' not surprise that Indian Markets crashed, after all, India isnt on Planet Jupiter, its' on terra-firma and every other nation can dictate the course in Indian Financials.

Valuations are now suddenly the flavour of discussion, however the "fundamentals" many take for granted are about to be questioned. No one in their sane mind would be able to predict the extent of US recession (if any) and its' impact on Indian markets, yet the euphoria doesnt abate.

Let's hope and pray that just like the stock markets, the real-estate markets would firmly head towards where it belongs. It's high time....

Vikram Pandit, CEO, Citigroup.

Vikram Pandit Rocks!!!

This is not about nationalism , just pure admiration for a man who has achieved what mere mortals dream about. Maybe, CEO, something else would have been fitting, but the beast that Citigroup is, makes it awe-inspiring.

Wish you great luck in your role of doing what you do best!

The Dangerous Indian Urban Divide

The real dangers in Indian Economy are not poverty, hunger nor disease. They are the following in the order of their severity:

1. Black Money: This is one instrument, of ensuring that the salaried classes generate moolah for other sections of the society to ravage upon. The amount of direct taxes being poured in by this class of people is enormous enough for the country to grow at a 8%-9% rate, to imagine what the REAL growth numbers' would be if the worlds' largest black economy within a country was scrutinized, and taxed.

The black marketeers exist in various forms, but the biggest culprits till date have been builders and corrupt bureaucrats. This class of India, is by far the biggest threat to India, and demand a separate regulator aka SEBI to carefully watch each and every transaction happening in India.
A case in point are the numerous land scams being unearthed, and political interests in real-estate.

The movie, "Khosla ka Ghosla" deals with one such land-sharks, however the modes and methods of operations of such death-dealers differs vastly.

2. Corruption: Khairnar once said, "Its a dark new moon night, and you want me to point out the darkness?"

3. Greed & Lack of Social Responsibility: Indians just fail to understand, that when the rich-poor divide increases substantially, a force bent on social justice will take matters in their own hands. Today, we are witnessing this phenomenon, in the form of shameless display of corruption by policemen & traffic cops. The vandalism is spreading from railway ticket-collectors to government employees with any kind of public contact.

Finally I'd urge you to watch this video, to have a sense of reality, and to guage where India would really reach in the year 2050.

SEBI Proposes Tighter Rules on P-Notes: Catch the bull by its' Horns

Securities & Exchange Board of India has issues a draft document proposing tightening of noose around the "FII" inflow into the country off the back of P-Notes.

As discussed earlier, this route is no doubt used by the mafia, underworld, corrupt politicians and likely hawala operators under the guise of "FII" investment. The total anonymity in such transactions opens a Pandora's Box, as Occams' Razor suggests, the simplest explanation is often the truth.

If my vote counts, please re-consider banning P-Notes in totality. If not, then please make this draft into a directive asap.

Thank You SEBI, RBI & FM...please save India from this menace.

Visit to Bombay Stock Exchange

There are two phases in every mumbaikar's life. First, when he's not yet come across the charisma, grandeur and the sheer power to challenge and alter your destiny. And the next one, is when you have visited the Bombay Stock Exchange, and interacted with the very men that made it one of the oldest financial benchmarks of Indian Economy.

Okay, I'm still in a kind of daze, about how I could stay away from the stock markets for so long, especially when all indicators were screaming out loud at even putting in pension funds into the stock market.

The reason I happened to visit the stock market was to attend a course on "Fundamental Analysis" at the BSE Training Institute (19th Floor). The course provides a completely fresh perspective into how stock markets need to be approached. An over-whelming feeling that almost took me over towards the end of this session, I literally felt like an ostrich with his head buried into the ground. The few important pointers I gathered from the course were, always study the true worth (Valuation) of a company, before deciding to invest in one. The markets always come around to respect that figure. Keep a keen eye on what the promoters are upto, Indians are criminals when it comes to integrity, and the course covered a lot of examples of such family businesses. Essar group, Naresh Goyal, Great Eastern being a few of them. Another key perspective, which I guess I was not prepared for, was the depth of insight that one needs to have on the economy to make sound / logical calls.

As regards the venue, what I must recommend to anyone who reads this + lives in Mumbai, is to take this or any other course. The view one gets of south bombay, the financial HQ of India and above all, the opportunity to meet the ex-president / leading brokers of BSE is once in a lifetime.
Left: View atop the BSE, overlooking the Gateway of India, Museum and other such landmarks. (Click for a full-size image)

A few things that have indeed unchanged even after LPG has hit us hard, plus since the FIIs and other institutions come together to challenge the dominance of BSE in the form of NSE are the love of money. The whiff of opportunity strikes you as soon as you enter the building.

My sincere Thanks, to every broker, dealer and member of Bombay Stock Exchange. Thanks for making the place I was born in, so respectable, and so desirable!

Below: Video of the brand new ticker and screen courtesy BSE and NDTV Profit

Dollar at 30 - by 2008

My earliest memory goes back upto Rs. 13/$, but those were golden days' when India was almost self-reliant, and license raj was still allowed, that was 1988.

Not for long, the worlds' most idiotic political party got elected (barely) and decided to do something that silly minds always do. Disturb a calm lake, and ever since all hell broke loose, Rupee hit an all-time low of Rs. 49/$, that was 1998.

But even bad things dont stay forever, the Reserve Bank of India (Mom's bank), and apparently even the Finance Ministry decided to stop "pegging" the rupee to a basket and let it free...and free it has been. After a few hiccups, the rupee is sailing, we've witnessed an unprecedented rise in the rupee against the dollar over the last few days, a lot of it due to the largesse of funds being poured into India by "FIIs" (Read black-marketeers & underworld and yeah of-course genuine FIIs as well).

So how far would it go? Some experts have suggested a long-term stability around Rs. 38/$ and some around Rs. 35/$. But that's an experts' suggestion...its' bound to be a bit conservative, that's one limitation one doesnt have while blogging, so assuming a 10%-15% leeway, we can safely expect the dream Rs. 30/$ somewhere around mid next year or at the very worst towards 2008-Q4.

For such a possibility, we need to pump in money into the stock market, however there is one bother, the real-estate sector is a black-hole that's threatening to take away the free-capital available in the market currently.

For some reason, I keep remembering the quote Uday Kotak made towards end of 2006 - "Americans sustained a 10-Year bull run, there is no reason why we cannot better it". Amen to that sir!

OK if it does happen where does it lead us?
A. To a far, more important role in world-politics!
B. Will boost the Indian travellers' budget plans...expect New York to be lined with bhel-puri stalls soon...that would be a sight ;)
C. Oil-pool deficit reduction, but dont see it lasting for long though.
D. Depressed exporters - to hell with you, the country doesnt need to support you forever...
E. A shaken IT industry, forget the cheap-labour bargain guys, sell its' intelligence. I can say with experience we are at-par, if not better with the best on the planet.
F. Kotak Mahindra taking over Goldman Sachs (!!!)
G. Reliance buying all Fortune-500 oil companies outside India.
H. Subhiksha takes over Walmart!

Ok, last three are just wishful thoughts, though its' not impossible...Tata Steel did acquire Corus, so the rumblings have begun. But this is possible (if ever) only if Indian rupee continues its' surge against the dollar, and the US successfully plans its incursions into Iran or Venezuela, or at the very least gets' its Petrodollars alive and kicking again.

Independence from Credit Cards

I've finally achieved a milestone of sorts while managing my finances. I've got rid of all my credit cards, all the cut pieces are on their way to the respective banks.

The reason for this desperate measure is a serious cost-benefit analysis. Some of the factors that influenced this:

1. First and foremost, no matter how bad the risk is for a CC company, it simply doesnt justify an interest rate of 3%-4% per month!
2. The banks have non-standard days of billing, hence its' sometimes difficult to keep track of which bill is due when, especially when the number of credit cards you hold reaches double digits.
3. There is no graded interest payment schemes, so if you default by a day or 30 it will still carry the same penalty! At 3%-4% its' quite a crime that such a system is allowed to be practiced in India.
4. The eagerness with which Credit Cards are issued, only goes to show that this product operates via a PUSH model, rather than a person actually needing to own one. I realised this late, but eventually, that ever since I joined a business school, credit cards have been pushed into my wallet under the guise of "lifetime-free" schemes.
5. Many shops and establishments in Mumbai charge an extra 2% for purchases made using credit cards, so do fuel-stations, but under the guise of service tax.
6. Now, for the most important reason, I'm really not comfortable with the idea that some goons are gonna come looking for me asking me to repay paltry sums like 10K odd. That is the ugliest side of Indian Banking Industry, many thumbs down to ICICI and likes which have employed these tactics (see citation below).

ICICI Bank Credit Card - Terms & Conditions (Retrived on Independence Day-2007)
(d) DEFAULT AND CIRCUMSTANCES
(i) If the Cardholders fails to pay at least the Minimum Amount Due as mentioned in the Statement on or before the Payment Due Date, ICICI Bank shall be entitled to disclose information relating to days past due (“dpd”) of the Cardholder to credit information bureaus / agencies (specifically authorized by RBI). A notice shall be deemed to have been given to the Cardholder by ICICI Bank by informing the Cardholder of the disclosures of information relating to dpd status of the Cardholder through Statements. The time period between statement date and the payment due date of the credit card shall be construed to be the notice period for such reporting of the Cardholder.
(ii) ICICI Bank reports the credit/repayment history of the Cardholders to bureaus/agencies in terms of the dpd. The dpd status will indicate the number of days the Cardholder has not cleared his dues to ICICI Bank beyond the due date. The updated status of the Cardholder will be sent to the bureaus/agencies on pre decided regular intervals and thus there will be no withdrawal of the default report except in the case of disputes having been resolved in favor of the Cardholder.
(iii) Recovery procedure in the case of default: ICICI Bank shall be entitled, at the sole risk and cost of the Cardholder, to engage one or, more person(s) to collect the Cardholder’s dues and/or to enforce any security provided by the Cardholder, and ICICI Bank may (for such purposes) furnish to such person(s) such information, facts and figures pertaining to the Cardholder and the security as ICICI Bank deems fit. ICICI Bank may also delegate to such person(s) the right and authority to perform and execute all acts, deeds, matters and things connected therewith, or incidental thereto, as ICICI Bank deems fit.
(iv) Recovery of dues in the case of death/permanent incapacitance of Cardholder: The whole of the outstanding balance on the Card Account, together with the amounts of any outstanding Card transactions, effected but not yet charged to the Card Account, shall become immediately due and payable in full to ICICI Bank, by the Cardholder, his/her successors, nominees, legal heirs in the event of his/her death (after adjustment of credit shield benefit if subscribed by the Cardholder) or insolvency or winding up of the business of the Cardholder.
(v) Insurance cover for Cardholder (optional) and date of activation of policy:
The Cardholder may be offered various Insurance Benefits from time to time by ICICI Bank through a tie up with the Insurance Company, only upon the Cardholder opting for such a benefit. The date of activation of such policy will be communicated through the website. The Cardholder specifically acknowledges that in all cases of claim, the Insurance Company will be solely liable for settlement of the claim, and he/she will not hold ICICI Bank responsible in any manner whether for compensation, recovery of compensation, processing of claims or for any reason whatsoever.

Fcuk You!

Why India's not as hot as China?

Blame it on religion or blame it on corruption, eitherway, India is a far cry than China when it comes to "exciting opportunities" in terms Investment. I simply see no reason why the zillions being poured into India would make any difference to the nation itself.

Kudos RBI / Goodbye congress

The RBI has done it again! Repo rate & CRR get adjusted once again, even as the two economists , viz. Santa Singh and P. Idli Dosa Sambaram pave a way for a great Indian slowdown.

Welcome to earth guys! Uttar Pradesh will soon be lost, Goa and other states in-line to go for polls will follow. Unfortunately this means the horizon is painted saffron!

Worst news would be the two digit growth figures that China/Korea/Asean or even a pity Bangladesh are likely to return this year...the famed FIIs (minus the mafia ofcourse) will exit the Indian markets leaving a gaping hole to suck out all the hot gas from the Real Estate and the Economy overall.

Update: UP is indeed lost, it's BSP (former BJP ally) that's swept polls. Congress, SP even BJP have one honourable democratic function in UP, to form and be part of the opposition.

Ban Participatory Notes!

The Finance Ministry and $EBI are keeping a dark secret!

It's an open fact that "Participatory notes" are favourites of miscreants, terrorists and more importantly black-marketeers to "indulge" in speculative activity on Indian Stock Markets. Although Reserve Bank of India and CPI (M) are of the same view but for some unknown reasons, the FM & $EBI are unwilling to see reason enough to believe in it.

Ideas on retirement!

Umnn, I'm 30, I wanna retire @ 50 and I am practically broke :)

Right, not quite, but I am far from the kind of retirement that would sustain a current cash flow for a minimum 30 years of inactive earnings. Maybe even support that one entrepreneurial (read capitalist) venture I've so longed for all these years.

Indian stocks seem to be the basis of everything, you want a insurance, put into equities (DUH!) want a retirement, same; go for those aggresive mutual funds, atleast you would afford that bowl it can be a great profit making tool on any of Mumbai's traffic signals :)

So how on earth does one go about setting up your own retirement fund? There is only one and only one way, the Warren Buffet way. How many people are able to donate a part of their retirement funds to charity, and get praised by practically every bit of public proponent on this planet? (How this benefits Hathaway is a matter of debate, maybe there's none, but wont be surprised if it does) Capitalism isnt just about making the most of opportunity, but rather I view it as a means of making the most of whatever opportunity falls upon anyone (including you). So there is my starting point, but working for an investment bank and being part of those regulatory requirements robs the sheer ecstasy of being a speculator. For good I might add, in hindsight!

In India, there are only two types of companies. One that would survive till I die, and others that wont! Tata Motors, my favourite isnt quite what I call a long term prospect, as its days' would be numbered if and when India does stops it's apathy towards being rich!

It's indeed a difficult job, hence the portfolio would have to be churned over and over again. But that's what it takes, a 5% slice of your entire portfolio as brokerage! (Damn! I should be runnign an internet trading site...what am I doing filling up blogs!)

Mutual funds do well...hahaha...what a piece of $hit. Reliance growth goes negative in a few weeks of its' grand entry. UTI failed all it's investors. Magnum is ill-liquid, and most others rip you off clean. The fund manager's have a lifestyle to maintain guys...and the fund has a lot of hungry mouths to feed. This is a no-go unless you want exposure to debt and money-markets. Go for the GILT laden ones, they are the true blue investment vehicles. Go for Reliance and ICICI bonds, they are so good at being crooks, it would take another century for India to put them on the back foot.

But the key to your retirement portfolio should be only one! Aggregation! That's what you gotta do, no negative movements, only positive growth, and making money in the bear markets, that is the appetite you need to prescibe if you wanna have a rocking retirement :)