Dollar at 30 - by 2008

My earliest memory goes back upto Rs. 13/$, but those were golden days' when India was almost self-reliant, and license raj was still allowed, that was 1988.

Not for long, the worlds' most idiotic political party got elected (barely) and decided to do something that silly minds always do. Disturb a calm lake, and ever since all hell broke loose, Rupee hit an all-time low of Rs. 49/$, that was 1998.

But even bad things dont stay forever, the Reserve Bank of India (Mom's bank), and apparently even the Finance Ministry decided to stop "pegging" the rupee to a basket and let it free...and free it has been. After a few hiccups, the rupee is sailing, we've witnessed an unprecedented rise in the rupee against the dollar over the last few days, a lot of it due to the largesse of funds being poured into India by "FIIs" (Read black-marketeers & underworld and yeah of-course genuine FIIs as well).

So how far would it go? Some experts have suggested a long-term stability around Rs. 38/$ and some around Rs. 35/$. But that's an experts' suggestion...its' bound to be a bit conservative, that's one limitation one doesnt have while blogging, so assuming a 10%-15% leeway, we can safely expect the dream Rs. 30/$ somewhere around mid next year or at the very worst towards 2008-Q4.

For such a possibility, we need to pump in money into the stock market, however there is one bother, the real-estate sector is a black-hole that's threatening to take away the free-capital available in the market currently.

For some reason, I keep remembering the quote Uday Kotak made towards end of 2006 - "Americans sustained a 10-Year bull run, there is no reason why we cannot better it". Amen to that sir!

OK if it does happen where does it lead us?
A. To a far, more important role in world-politics!
B. Will boost the Indian travellers' budget plans...expect New York to be lined with bhel-puri stalls soon...that would be a sight ;)
C. Oil-pool deficit reduction, but dont see it lasting for long though.
D. Depressed exporters - to hell with you, the country doesnt need to support you forever...
E. A shaken IT industry, forget the cheap-labour bargain guys, sell its' intelligence. I can say with experience we are at-par, if not better with the best on the planet.
F. Kotak Mahindra taking over Goldman Sachs (!!!)
G. Reliance buying all Fortune-500 oil companies outside India.
H. Subhiksha takes over Walmart!

Ok, last three are just wishful thoughts, though its' not impossible...Tata Steel did acquire Corus, so the rumblings have begun. But this is possible (if ever) only if Indian rupee continues its' surge against the dollar, and the US successfully plans its incursions into Iran or Venezuela, or at the very least gets' its Petrodollars alive and kicking again.