Mumbai Indians: Les Miserables

What a team!

Disgusting, old, uncompetitive and above all pridelss! There is nothing to write about the character of this team. Its' is so very unrepresentative of Mumbai, a city of great talent, vision, dreams and hopes. The Mukesh Ambani XI unfortunately was allowed to use the name of a city, that never was meant for wealth-inheritors.

This city represents the go-getters, and for people who've got it easy, it will always be an alien. The Mukesh Ambani XI has done it again, a shameful defeat from the jaws of victory, that the Mumbai crowd poured its' heart into supporting this retirement plan for all current and future discards speaks greatly about the city, rathen than the team that used its name.

Hard Luck to you Mukesh Ambani XI, good luck next year!

Innocence Bleeding

Aarushi Talwar, a 14-year school student is butchered in the middle of the night in her own bedroom. Six days later, her father is arrested as the main accused. The TV channels are again at it, with 24/7 reporting (?) of the same clips over an over again. What led her father to take life away from his own daughter can possibly be never known, its' really difficult to imagine what a person like him really is made of.

That said, its' really the gruesome manner in which a father takes away life, shameful day of modern India.

My condolences to the innocent life lost to a moment of anger. My your soul rest in peace.

Inflation + IIP + Credit Cruch = Black Tuesday

What a week it's gonna be, expect the "leaders" to be down by 5%-7%, this on the back of some grave dangers that Indian Economy seems to be entering. Already there are news about "Food Riots" happening in various countries being reported by CNN (not a frivolous channel like Times Now or IBN-Vernacs etc.)

The earlier post about IIP hits home the underlying dangers lurking disclosure around 12-May. The Inflation has not only taken the steam out of the market, the FM+PM dream team appears exhausted by the unrelenting challenges thrown at the. By all accounts it appears to be in vain, rather like the last ditch efforts by a ship-crew trying to plug far more holes in it's walls than they possibly could imagine.

The farmers' subsidy, that golden liquidity, India has at its' disposal is about to be dispersed, and will be sucked away within days by hoarders, black-marketeers and politicians alike. Furthermore, credit-crunch all over the world means a 5% fall in Shanghai Composite, and a 3.5% one for HangSeng.

Wait and watch as the gloom of tuesday catches one and all on possibly the turning point of Indias' Bull Run.

Remembering Timothy Treadwell

Timothy Treadwell, a person who made a huge impression on wildlife enthusiasts all over the world, is remembered with fondness today, not for the controversy, or the tragic end, but for a way of life he discovered that billions never would. Stepping over that line that separates us - ordinary mortals - from that *something* that takes us ever so close to nature.

Leading the way with example, his unconventional approach to humanity and wildlife is as refreshing as most great people I've read about, alas he lived in times, where humans are hell bent on breaking the rules of nature and very little recognition goes by way of people who take the path less travelled.

I know you found peace, and pray that I find mine. Rest well.

Euphoria over IIP: Welcome to Fool's Paradise

7.4%

That's the latest inflation figure!

However as always, the business news channels are going ga-ga over the superlative performance of Indian Industrial Production in February. Hence its' worthwhile ruminating on the reality behind this numbers.

A. Overall growth, as shown in the sheet, is actually above the September 2007 mark in only 5 out of the 20 odd sectors, that means compared with September 2007 almost 15 sectors have either gone flat or bust. However, capital goods have indeed bucked the trend, and emerged as a sector with some real positive outflow. That's partially because government spending and most likely due to capacity planning initiatives for the next financial year. Overall, the gloom has only got darker. We did witness a slowdown in feb last year as well, which was cyclical, but this time its more genuine and almost out of the blue.

B. Sectoral: Manufacturing, is the darling of all industries, its' witnessing a major correction. Isnt a growing sector supposed to be going up? Comparing the feb numbers to last year same time, is correct, but factually speaking, we have declined over the feb figures as well.

The story of growth is highly debatable in the Indian context, especially given the fact that 70% Indians still earn Rs. 35 or less per day, and almost the same percentage spend less than Rs. 20 per day or less. That means the merely ensuring that they are sustained is gonna become a huge challenge

What it means for the common man is that, life just got tougher still. The government doesnt care a damn about the majority of its' populace, and is hell-bent on making India a capitalist country. Forget the government, the statistical organisation has presented charcoal in form that it almost might pass off as a diamond. A look around will clearly tell you what the real situation is. Real estate is booming, sucking away capital meant to fuel this growth. The serious growth inhibitor that it has become needs to be understood by the modern day government.

Today Kapil Sibal can go on air and talk about China having 8+ inflation and also cite that other third world counties are also going through the same inflation worries. However, one shudders to think what might happen if Oil crosses $120 and Indian government in its' bid to perform well at the next elections forgets its' fundamental duty - of sowing the seeds of a free market - and instead indulges in exceses to farmers and alike.

It's really a shame we are in such a situation inspite of 3 notable economist minds being at the helm. Let's hope and pray they get their policies right, and in connivance with the ever smart RBI help us ride this tide.

Positive Atheism

A MUST READ

Beautiful article, that goes into an in-depth analysis of what Atheism (Acceptance of Reality), is all about. It's not about disrespecting God, NO! Its' all about realising and recognising the bare and hard facts, and then living a life with that knowledge in a positive way.

Review: Dum Laga Ke - Malad, Link Road

I discovered this restaurant by chance, when we ordered biryanis at my friends place. To my sweet surprise, the biryani's were not the messy ghevda based ones, but authentic mughlai biryanis. Then, one friday, we all decided to eat out for lunch, and that was my second visit. That day, I had Egg Biryani (Tawa-Style), and have had the same 3 more times in the last two weeks.

Besides the above, there is a good variety of biryanis', tandoor based items, and a lot of the non-vegetarian stuff, which my dad loved. Me, being a lacto-ovo veggie, had to satisfy myself with just Egg biryani, paneer biryani and veg biryani.

Bottomline, if you love your biryanis', this place is a must visit.

A word of caution, this place is supposedly a franchisee of Borivali Biryani Center (BBC), but BBC is far worse than Dum Laga Ke, in terms of quality, and service.

Please not Lehman Brothers!

The US Markets are in a bad mood, Sunday was Bear Stearns, today there are loud rumors about Lehman Brothers, no less. Apparently, DBS Bank has circulated an internal email barring its' employees from taking fresh positions with LEH as the the counter party.

This and the fresh memory of Bear Stearns, and the remarkably resemblance of LEH to BSC's last two weeks has triggered a major sellof in LEH stock. However one particular news that may calm the markets is that the Feds latest move will enable even Investment Banks to avail of emergency funding from FED similiar to what commercial banks enjoy today. That will certainly help LEH get that crucial short-term backing. Tomorrow, would be a crucial day for LEH, when they announce their Q1 earnings. My sincere hopes are pinned on some solid positive news from LEH about their performance in Q1'08.

Bear no more!

Bear Stearns went down far more quickly than anyone anticipated. Rather, we in the emerging markets are not quite able to digest such kind of swiftness in action. A company with an 85-year long history and having weathered the great depression, falls from grace within two weeks!!!

That's a developed market, no speculation - only action. J.P.Morgan got probably a sweet deal, rather ensured that the deal was sweetened for them to be interested.

Spare a thought for the 14K employees of BSC, I've experienced exactly what they must be going through right now, actually worse, when my company Cyberspace wound up without blinking an eye (all thanks to rogues siphoning off funds meant for an IT company into funding their main brokerage business).

I guess the writing was on the wall, and as my previous post on 15-March outlined, Monday did indeed proved to be a Black Monday globally.

Sarabjit Singh: Life under threat due to Stupid Media

There is an unprecedented explosion of "News Channels" in the country...these are faceless mouthpieces of vested interests, and have little role in Nation-building or anything as such.

The worst form of reporting these days is coming from the Times Group, especially their tabloids and the disastrous news channel Times Now. It was this channel that went haywire over the "Kashmir Singh" news-story and in their over-enthusiasm, stepped on national security. Their acts ended in shame, when they got a live confession from Kashmir Singh and aired it nationally. I can remember watching that bit of "news" on Times Now, and the first thing that came to my mind, is these idiots have all but signed Sarabjits' Death Warrant.

It was a relatively no-news, that a teenaged Kashmir Singh was kept in prison and released by Pakistan under International Human Rights Acts, after a good 30-odd years. Yes the family was thrilled, but the country? Questionable! I for one, never got the big euphoria around this whole Kashmir Singh saga. For one, that its' a drop in the ocean. The mutilation faced by Indian-POW as early as the Kargil War, is fresh in my mind, besides this, countless fishermen are not spared when they land up in Pakistani waters. The same country butchered its' own Prime Minister, and then blasted his daughter on a election campaign trail. Further, proof of this non-event was given by Kashmir Singh himself, when he opened his mouth on National media. A spy going to town confessing about his profession? And Indian Media airing it? What brains are running these channels?

Indian government should have stepped in immediately upon his release, and given him a thorough understanding of his role with the media of this country, albeit, its all too late, the pakistani establishment must be feeling thoroughly violated over these statements, and as a balm and also a lesson, is plotting to murder a priosoner of 18 years.

The Indian Government owes it to its' military, para-military & intelligence personnel to ensure Sarabjit Singh is spared, and released. Whether it takes big-bucks, or an exchange of a pakistani-militant. Please Do what it takes to bring Sarabjit Singh back, a few million should be enough, after all, the country is in dire-straits, and we are merely paying the price of release of an Indian, who's a father, a brother, and a son to a middle-class Indian Family.

All said, I just wish we had finished the agenda in 1971.

Bear Stearns Bailout

What a story! The blue-eyed boy is in trouble!

There's a high-possibility of 17-March-2007 being the blackest Monday on the bourses worldwide. Bear Stearns is facing a basic issue, it doesn't have money to pay back investors. The long-term outlook for BS is not so bleak, however 17-March & 27-March would be two significant days in the history of this bank.

Back home, India does seem fairly decoupled, except being pulled into the acute liquidity crunch that the world is facing. It may not be a bad time, to relook at some of our own practices. Indian Realty prices have moved more than 3X over 2003 base, which if they havent already, make Indian banks seriously revalue the impact of their housing portfolio. ICICI bank, already reported upto $250m losses in sub-prime related issues. Indian story is good, solid but the termite attack has started, more than anything the FM's "decoupling" theory is gonna be seriously tested soon.

Whatever happens, I sincerely do hope that Bear Stearns rides this uncomfortable times unscathed. Else, lets' be prepared for a worldwide-market blood bath.

Nifty: Meter Down!

Nifty is Falling and no, its' not me, or my wishful thinking. Rather its' a sad realization that we are not there yet. A 25% fall doesnt quite happen in a matter to 10 business days, not in the developed markets , atleast not unless there is something fundamentally wrong in the economy.

Ironically the market is going down without any domestic reason. There is no doubt that with oil hitting $ 107+/barrel, inflation is gonna have a field day in India. A country, where oil prices are controlled, will be in for some really interesting political games in the offing. Its' hardly 10 months for the official elections, and anyones' guess on the number of actual days.

With this background and a weak Congress, I see NO support for the markets from here on, the Rs.1 bn cash kitty with Reliance Mutual Fund, or the collective Rs.10 bn (guess) with the Indian MFs. They are gonna let FIIs make some handsome returns.

The redemption pressure on MFs is likely to begin post-march, once the tax seasons' over, people are gonna take one hard look at the disappointing sensex, and likely to cash in / book their profits. Another looming crisis is the real-estate bubble. Where is the support for real-estate prices in a falling market. I see a crisis, if the real-estate even cracks by 15%, thats gonna make banks shiver in their pants. Its' likely that overall Home-loan portfolio in India, given its' overall rating, is no better than the sub-prime borrowers in the US. It's just that in US, atleast they are known to be sub-prime, in India, they are all within wraps.

Overall a very interesting situation is panning out, day traders are gonna have one helluva party. Enjoy your earnings season, Mr. Bear.

The new face of India

Indians awoke to a rude shock on Monday Morning. Black Monday it was indeed, the Indian Hockey Team losing to Great Britain, and thus losing a berth to play at the Olympics. That, the Indian Hockey Federation doesnt give a damn if Indian Hockey is relegated or derecognised was made amply clear by the President, K.P.S.Gill's retort, to not expect "Quick Results".

Hell, this is a 70+ old man, who can never relate to what the real India currently is. Its' the youth that are driving the country and they are far superior a breed to manage, run and achieve results in a manner its' completely unknown to this wise old man.

To me, he represents the scum of India that really makes up for the bottom most part of Indian Society. An adminstrator so in love with his post, that he's willing to sacrifice the pride of a nation, to achieve petty goals. One only wonders, how do the grey heads of India become so morally corrupt and shameless. I cannot think of any other word than Shame to describe the manner in which the IHF has gone about their business.

I think this is the time to think afresh and make a serious attempt at reviving the old hockey days. To start with, India should simply re-introduce field hockey the way it used to be played. On a grass surface. Make no mistakes, the techniques of grass hockey cannot be different from that of turf hockey. Its' far better to have a confident team, than to have a set of proven non-performers. Players within the national league, should be good players in both forms of the game. Theres' no point in adapting to turf hockey, it will only lead to more K.P.S.Gills and we should sincerely avoid that.

The Premier Hockey League, once its' played on grass, will not only attract poor and wealthy alike the turf will no longer be a barrier to young players from all corners of the country.

Lets' atleast make an attempt to achieve results inspite of K.P.S.Gill, just like Indian Economy is booming inspite of the Government.

India Calling: Toyota Corolla Tenth Generation

Toyota has long launched the 10th generation Corolla in various markets, including Japan, US, Australia, South Africa, Jamaica and quite a long list. Looking at Bombay Times these days one wonders if this beauty is gonna make it to India before FY09 hits us.

From the reviews and raves about this tenth generation babe, it looks like a apt answer to the undue dominance of the Honda Civic in the entry-level B segment.

This babe really rocks in looks, and that only echoes what the experts say about this package of energy. I mean, digital speedometers, climate control, and chic looks are some of the highlights of this beauty, who knows the next thing you see me, I might just have been lucky.

Definition of a Finance Minister: P.Chidambaram

What a Man!

Sir P.Chidambaram, he represents soneone that probably every business studen dream of...right at the top of the pyramid. The sole King of the most vibrant economy on this planet, making him the true governor of the fate of this earth.

No exaggerations, I am truly awed by the phenomenal magic show brought to life by Sir PC. And NO, I'm not talking about the 2008-09 budget, it was a damp squid, probably constrained by the petty political partners of Congress and its' own ranks. But, for all observers, there was one truly savouring experience of watching a Man blessed with wisdom, passion and a true sense of bold-spirit go about his job in the most professional manner known in this country since ages.

If Laloo is hailed by some firang university, it probably just proves that the west is already brain drained, they have no clue where the blast force of India lies, they are instead left praising her exhaust pipes.

Here is a man, who being a lawyer and a politician slashed the daylights out of self-propagated business news channels. Anyone who wanted proof why business channels should be watched in mute mode (perhaps only as a cheap replacement to BloomBerg or the likes) the post-budget interviews by Raghav Behl, NDTV Lead Anchor (who atleast got a finance brain with him) and the Zee Business News anchor (she's most likely to resign) only made it ever so clear.

One is left wonderiing, if only India had 520 more Sir P.Chidambarams, then India would not only hit that coveted double digit growth, but would so quickly become the best place to live on this planet.

Thank you very much, for being India's Finance Minister.

Letter to editor@ibnlive.com

Sir,

Thank you for an insightful, liberal and by far the most complete debate on the “Events targeting North-Indians in Mumbai” today (Sun, 10-Feb-2008).

I have been seeing some rather disturbing reporting by north-regional channels (SP Influenced– Sahara, Sensationalist – Aaj Tak, India 24x7, India TV and surprisingly IBN7) and also the times group in Mumbai (Mumbai Mirror).

Is there no accountability left in journalism, and why isn’t anyone questioning the strong northern (one person / group only) influence on the above mentioned channels? Why isn’t anyone questioning the rights of such regionally-focused & biased reporting under the guise of “National TV”?

Please carry on with the quality of reporting and the debates, because your channel is the only hope for liberal minds of our country.

Lastly, I just wish to register my thoughts on the agitation started by MNS, its’ aptly described as “Gutter Politics”, especially after hearing the spokesperson go on every channel in a futile attempt to spread the hatred. I am convinced that, even if Mumbai was comprised of 80%-90% Maharashtrians, these same parties would have made caste / creed as the agenda, and we would have had equal violence under the guise of agitation.

I also wish to appeal to you, to cut-down on MNS, SP, Amar Singh & Raj Thackeray (What's their contribution to India?) related news, Hate Politics needs to be nipped in the bud, and instead, we are providing a breeding ground for the same.

Let’s vow that only Gujarat remains an exception.

Regards,

Milind Kolekar
(A Marathi-speaking Indian)

Raj Thackeray's Campaign against North Indians

Yesterday, most national channels were beaming speeches by Raj Thackeray. Amongst other ideas aired by Raj, the most notable were as follows:

• Lack of representation of Maharashtrians in Indian Railways.
• Introduction of Tax-free status to Bhojpuri Films in Mumbai and other parts of Maharastra!!!
• Steady flux of migrants from UP & Bihar.
• Factual description of misplaced loyalties of Amitabh Bachhan, who represents Samajwadi Party.
  
• Request to celebrate Chhat Puja as a state-event in Maharashtra by SP Politicians..
  

I must say I can relate to the frustration that Maharashtrians face at the violation of cultural sanctity in the face of the influx. Migration to Maharashtra is rampant from not just North, but all parts of India. However the target of the speech is clearly North Indians, especially UPites & Biharis.

Lets' not forget that the only gift these poor migrants from the north have given Mumbai, is the public squatting and shameless shitting in the open. This more than anything, clearly reflects their culture and the state of affairs in their state. The face of politics in UP and Bihar is even worse than these migrants, gun-totting gangs, force ballots and total disregard for life. No surprise the sanctuary of Maharashtra is looked upon as heaven.

Being a good 1500 KMs away, Maharashtra has evolved based on a completely different set of values, ones that respect life, one-another, and believes in living life to the fullest. Now, contrast that with the lawless, sub-human, crime-infested regions that the migrants come from.

I've toured some part of Harayana, Punjab, Delhi, Himachal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Nowhere have I seen such rampant infestation of UPites & Biharis, and the crown goes to Tamil Nadu, where I couldnt find even one shop named Shah Bros or the likes. Bottom line is that the whole of India is made of states that purports a unique socio-cultural aspect. There are numerous examples of cultural santuaries being prevalent across India, be it housing societies barring muslims or non-vegetarians, or villages not allowing entry to certain castes, or be it the aryan-dravidian debate. We all love to be surrounded by people of our kind, who speak our language, who behave like us, who share our mindset and most importantly who share similiar values.

Cities as an expection is highly desirable, hence the great melting pot that Mumbai is, is the best sign of Modern India, but the ugliness within it, shouldnt be covered under the guise of fairness.

My one question to Mr. Potato & Mr. Puppy is why are your states unable to stop this out-flow of the poor? Isnt this the biggest blot on your politics? How shameful does one need to act to be called as one from your state?

The need of the day is to bring in a comprehensive plan to bring Bihar & UP out of their rut, what Mr. Anil Ambani and Mr. Amitabh Bachhan are doing for the state is truly commendable. The plan to rescue UP & Bihar should be taken along the lines of curbing Bird-Flu within West Bengal, containment should be the mantra, and surely states which boast of a superb irrigation and great human capital can do much here. The more I think of this problem, the more I see logic in the preferential railway job allotments (they do need these benefits), and at the end of the day, a poor man regardless of where he lives needs to be given a helping hand and a lot of care.

Having said this, I wouldnt like to see Maharashtra as being the place as host to these refugee camps.

Indian sub-prime crisis in the making?

Stock markets have fallen, (for good) by about 25-30% in the last fortnight. Thats' still early days, we are yet to catch-up with the complete sell-off targets, that FIIs and the real movers of Indian markets have on their minds. It's quite obvious that the very liquidity that is hitting the markets is very much locked in the highly over-valued real estate market.

Unless this liquidity is unlocked, there is very to no hope in getting the liquidity back into the system.

However, it should be noted that unless people realize that fundamentally, when a miniscule apartment sells for 1/2 a million, its' time to leave either the city, or the markets.

Whenver the liquidity in real-estate is triggered, rest assured that Indian banks are gonna start announcing losses just like their US counterparts. Remember, even Indian banks have been dispensing 90% loans, even a 10-15% fall in real-estate might trigger an amazing real-estate crisis, rather a banking crisis, watch out, we are very close, and the ice is wafer thin ahead.

Dear FM, PM, et. al: Leave the Capital Market Alone

Why is Indian Government trying to bail out an super highly sold, unviable and unprofitable Capital Market?

Indian Government and the Finance Ministry need to answer this question, in the most candid manner possible. They owe it to the millions of people who do not have demat a/cs but still pay VAT, the millions of salaried class government employees earning a pittance while still paying income tax.

Why does the government want to lose the precious capital, and help FIIs earn far better returns instead of waiting for the deluge to be over. By constantly baby-sitting the stock markets, the government is encouraging callous investors. Why is LIC investing in bear markets, by using investor money, when they never pay more to policy holder on the back of a bull market.

Farmers kill themselves for the want of pity amounts, and the government turns a blind eye. Come FIIs in trouble, and greedy "investors" wanting support to book profits, the DIIs come in an bail them out.

Indian market is just that a creche for rich and HNIs, it is far far away from being a free and fair open market.

Black Monday - 21Jan2008

Indian Markets can excite you more than any reality show or sports t.v. ever can. Today was one such days, the numbers themselves probably spell disaster, however once you start imagining the carnage in the lives of those unfortunate ones who were highly leveraged in this bull market, it dawns on you as one of the biggest reality shows in the nation.

There were punters, horse-traders, and pure betters who were begining to take hold of Indian Markets, and would go home tonight to lick their wounds and perhaps with the knowledge that Indian Markets are just that, another set of emerging markets where mayhem and chaos rules roost.

Watching the action live as it unfolded was extremely exciting, but seeing 21-Jan being permanently etched in Indian Stock Market history was extremely satisfying too. For the record I lost about Rs. 5K held in ULIP, but I can afford to smile. Not many can.

The usual set of monkeys were freely making predictions about the future, and how the markets will bounce back. These shameless experts are only good at reading numbers that are past-tense, to even take their word about the future is foolhardy. Its' not surprise that Indian Markets crashed, after all, India isnt on Planet Jupiter, its' on terra-firma and every other nation can dictate the course in Indian Financials.

Valuations are now suddenly the flavour of discussion, however the "fundamentals" many take for granted are about to be questioned. No one in their sane mind would be able to predict the extent of US recession (if any) and its' impact on Indian markets, yet the euphoria doesnt abate.

Let's hope and pray that just like the stock markets, the real-estate markets would firmly head towards where it belongs. It's high time....