Its' incredible, how our Finance Minister talks about bringing in all unaccounted wealth under tax-purview, how the proliferation of black economy is hurting us bad at the world-stage. But does he ever question / ask for income details of the thousands of Ticket Collectors operating in Indian Railways?
They are Corrupt, beyond imagination!
I have no words to describe the very means a (dis)respectful Ticket Collector employs and literally make you pay for your desperation or dire needs.
I think this species of humans ought to be classified separately, as their corruption is so blatant and public, its shameful that no one ever does anything about it. Its' about time each Ticket Collector & his spendings are monitored carefully, and the guilty ones (Most likely all of them) are made porters in the same town that they live in.
The modus operandi is very simple, Indian Railways, under the leadership of the worlds worst human being-cum-politician, issues far more wait-listed tickets than are ever possible to be filled. Inspite of having paid the entire amount, the TC then charges his own fees (in cash) to allocate a vacant berth to a wait-listed passenger.
It is a usual sight to see old men with balding / grey heads asking for Rs. 100 almost as easily as a beggar does at signals. But like I said, this is a different species altogether, shameless, humans ready to make a easy buck for virtually a brain-less job. They do absolutely no service whatsoever, the computerised ticketing system does an excellent job of grouping and allocating passengers well, but the illusions of progress are shattered the day one sees the Railway Ticket Collector going around asking society to pay him coz, he aint capable of earning it himself.
Friday, October 05, 2007
Dollar at 30 - by 2008
My earliest memory goes back upto Rs. 13/$, but those were golden days' when India was almost self-reliant, and license raj was still allowed, that was 1988.
Not for long, the worlds' most idiotic political party got elected (barely) and decided to do something that silly minds always do. Disturb a calm lake, and ever since all hell broke loose, Rupee hit an all-time low of Rs. 49/$, that was 1998.
So how far would it go? Some experts have suggested a long-term stability around Rs. 38/$ and some around Rs. 35/$. But that's an experts' suggestion...its' bound to be a bit conservative, that's one limitation one doesnt have while blogging, so assuming a 10%-15% leeway, we can safely expect the dream Rs. 30/$ somewhere around mid next year or at the very worst towards 2008-Q4.
For such a possibility, we need to pump in money into the stock market, however there is one bother, the real-estate sector is a black-hole that's threatening to take away the free-capital available in the market currently.
For some reason, I keep remembering the quote Uday Kotak made towards end of 2006 - "Americans sustained a 10-Year bull run, there is no reason why we cannot better it". Amen to that sir!
OK if it does happen where does it lead us?
A. To a far, more important role in world-politics!
B. Will boost the Indian travellers' budget plans...expect New York to be lined with bhel-puri stalls soon...that would be a sight ;)
C. Oil-pool deficit reduction, but dont see it lasting for long though.
D. Depressed exporters - to hell with you, the country doesnt need to support you forever...
E. A shaken IT industry, forget the cheap-labour bargain guys, sell its' intelligence. I can say with experience we are at-par, if not better with the best on the planet.
F. Kotak Mahindra taking over Goldman Sachs (!!!)
G. Reliance buying all Fortune-500 oil companies outside India.
H. Subhiksha takes over Walmart!
Ok, last three are just wishful thoughts, though its' not impossible...Tata Steel did acquire Corus, so the rumblings have begun. But this is possible (if ever) only if Indian rupee continues its' surge against the dollar, and the US successfully plans its incursions into Iran or Venezuela, or at the very least gets' its Petrodollars alive and kicking again.
Not for long, the worlds' most idiotic political party got elected (barely) and decided to do something that silly minds always do. Disturb a calm lake, and ever since all hell broke loose, Rupee hit an all-time low of Rs. 49/$, that was 1998.
But even bad things dont stay forever, the Reserve Bank of India (Mom's bank), and apparently even the Finance Ministry 
decided to stop "pegging" the rupee to a basket and let it free...and free it has been. After a few hiccups, the rupee is sailing, we've witnessed an unprecedented rise in the rupee against the dollar over the last few days, a lot of it due to the largesse of funds being poured into India by "FIIs" (Read black-marketeers & underworld and yeah of-course genuine FIIs as well).
decided to stop "pegging" the rupee to a basket and let it free...and free it has been. After a few hiccups, the rupee is sailing, we've witnessed an unprecedented rise in the rupee against the dollar over the last few days, a lot of it due to the largesse of funds being poured into India by "FIIs" (Read black-marketeers & underworld and yeah of-course genuine FIIs as well).So how far would it go? Some experts have suggested a long-term stability around Rs. 38/$ and some around Rs. 35/$. But that's an experts' suggestion...its' bound to be a bit conservative, that's one limitation one doesnt have while blogging, so assuming a 10%-15% leeway, we can safely expect the dream Rs. 30/$ somewhere around mid next year or at the very worst towards 2008-Q4.
For such a possibility, we need to pump in money into the stock market, however there is one bother, the real-estate sector is a black-hole that's threatening to take away the free-capital available in the market currently.
For some reason, I keep remembering the quote Uday Kotak made towards end of 2006 - "Americans sustained a 10-Year bull run, there is no reason why we cannot better it". Amen to that sir!
OK if it does happen where does it lead us?
A. To a far, more important role in world-politics!
B. Will boost the Indian travellers' budget plans...expect New York to be lined with bhel-puri stalls soon...that would be a sight ;)
C. Oil-pool deficit reduction, but dont see it lasting for long though.
D. Depressed exporters - to hell with you, the country doesnt need to support you forever...
E. A shaken IT industry, forget the cheap-labour bargain guys, sell its' intelligence. I can say with experience we are at-par, if not better with the best on the planet.
F. Kotak Mahindra taking over Goldman Sachs (!!!)
G. Reliance buying all Fortune-500 oil companies outside India.
H. Subhiksha takes over Walmart!
Ok, last three are just wishful thoughts, though its' not impossible...Tata Steel did acquire Corus, so the rumblings have begun. But this is possible (if ever) only if Indian rupee continues its' surge against the dollar, and the US successfully plans its incursions into Iran or Venezuela, or at the very least gets' its Petrodollars alive and kicking again.
Monday, September 03, 2007
Buddha Mar Gaya : No. 1 Hindi Parody Movie
This is my favourite genre, and watching movies like Hot-Shots, Airplane!, Scary Movie series have always made me wonder what a Hindi movie parody would be like. Well I got my answer, an extremely bold, and I must say offensive at-times, movie that fits the Indianized version of parodies - Buddha Mil Gaya.
It's not an average run-of-the mill movie rolled out by senseless directors, year after year...its' a movie with a lot of thought, that's what thrilled me. Never before has a Hindi movie had me bursting out in laughter as this one did.
But, make no mistake, this is not for everyone, if you are the ones who get offended easily, then please, dont watch this movie. However, if you ever wanted to be entertained, and are expecting just that and nothing more, then watch that movie on a big screen, you will come back a different person!
My personal fav scene is when a lady senior cop, giggles at the thought of having to see unknown body sans its' head, legs and hands...why...coz it still has its' "organs" intact. She shows sympthy at the missing head, then the missing hands, and rolls her eyes downwards, and immediately recognizes the body saying "Yeh to LK hai"...
Gruesome some might say, but hell its' celluloid...no ones' dead, its' just a joke and when you see it for the first time, it really drives you nutz...
Good movie, but I'm pretty sure it wont work, coz we Indians have been bought up on a dose of watching 40+ heros' romancing around trees celebrating their first love, and anything other than that just breaks our dreams...
It's not an average run-of-the mill movie rolled out by senseless directors, year after year...its' a movie with a lot of thought, that's what thrilled me. Never before has a Hindi movie had me bursting out in laughter as this one did.
But, make no mistake, this is not for everyone, if you are the ones who get offended easily, then please, dont watch this movie. However, if you ever wanted to be entertained, and are expecting just that and nothing more, then watch that movie on a big screen, you will come back a different person!
My personal fav scene is when a lady senior cop, giggles at the thought of having to see unknown body sans its' head, legs and hands...why...coz it still has its' "organs" intact. She shows sympthy at the missing head, then the missing hands, and rolls her eyes downwards, and immediately recognizes the body saying "Yeh to LK hai"...
Gruesome some might say, but hell its' celluloid...no ones' dead, its' just a joke and when you see it for the first time, it really drives you nutz...
Good movie, but I'm pretty sure it wont work, coz we Indians have been bought up on a dose of watching 40+ heros' romancing around trees celebrating their first love, and anything other than that just breaks our dreams...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Independence from Credit Cards
I've finally achieved a milestone of sorts while managing my finances. I've got rid of all my credit cards, all the cut pieces are on their way to the respective banks.
The reason for this desperate measure is a serious cost-benefit analysis. Some of the factors that influenced this:
1. First and foremost, no matter how bad the risk is for a CC company, it simply doesnt justify an interest rate of 3%-4% per month!
2. The banks have non-standard days of billing, hence its' sometimes difficult to keep track of which bill is due when, especially when the number of credit cards you hold reaches double digits.
3. There is no graded interest payment schemes, so if you default by a day or 30 it will still carry the same penalty! At 3%-4% its' quite a crime that such a system is allowed to be practiced in India.
4. The eagerness with which Credit Cards are issued, only goes to show that this product operates via a PUSH model, rather than a person actually needing to own one. I realised this late, but eventually, that ever since I joined a business school, credit cards have been pushed into my wallet under the guise of "lifetime-free" schemes.
5. Many shops and establishments in Mumbai charge an extra 2% for purchases made using credit cards, so do fuel-stations, but under the guise of service tax.
6. Now, for the most important reason, I'm really not comfortable with the idea that some goons are gonna come looking for me asking me to repay paltry sums like 10K odd. That is the ugliest side of Indian Banking Industry, many thumbs down to ICICI and likes which have employed these tactics (see citation below).
ICICI Bank Credit Card - Terms & Conditions (Retrived on Independence Day-2007)
(d) DEFAULT AND CIRCUMSTANCES
(i) If the Cardholders fails to pay at least the Minimum Amount Due as mentioned in the Statement on or before the Payment Due Date, ICICI Bank shall be entitled to disclose information relating to days past due (“dpd”) of the Cardholder to credit information bureaus / agencies (specifically authorized by RBI). A notice shall be deemed to have been given to the Cardholder by ICICI Bank by informing the Cardholder of the disclosures of information relating to dpd status of the Cardholder through Statements. The time period between statement date and the payment due date of the credit card shall be construed to be the notice period for such reporting of the Cardholder.
(ii) ICICI Bank reports the credit/repayment history of the Cardholders to bureaus/agencies in terms of the dpd. The dpd status will indicate the number of days the Cardholder has not cleared his dues to ICICI Bank beyond the due date. The updated status of the Cardholder will be sent to the bureaus/agencies on pre decided regular intervals and thus there will be no withdrawal of the default report except in the case of disputes having been resolved in favor of the Cardholder.
(iii) Recovery procedure in the case of default: ICICI Bank shall be entitled, at the sole risk and cost of the Cardholder, to engage one or, more person(s) to collect the Cardholder’s dues and/or to enforce any security provided by the Cardholder, and ICICI Bank may (for such purposes) furnish to such person(s) such information, facts and figures pertaining to the Cardholder and the security as ICICI Bank deems fit. ICICI Bank may also delegate to such person(s) the right and authority to perform and execute all acts, deeds, matters and things connected therewith, or incidental thereto, as ICICI Bank deems fit.
(iv) Recovery of dues in the case of death/permanent incapacitance of Cardholder: The whole of the outstanding balance on the Card Account, together with the amounts of any outstanding Card transactions, effected but not yet charged to the Card Account, shall become immediately due and payable in full to ICICI Bank, by the Cardholder, his/her successors, nominees, legal heirs in the event of his/her death (after adjustment of credit shield benefit if subscribed by the Cardholder) or insolvency or winding up of the business of the Cardholder.
(v) Insurance cover for Cardholder (optional) and date of activation of policy:
The Cardholder may be offered various Insurance Benefits from time to time by ICICI Bank through a tie up with the Insurance Company, only upon the Cardholder opting for such a benefit. The date of activation of such policy will be communicated through the website. The Cardholder specifically acknowledges that in all cases of claim, the Insurance Company will be solely liable for settlement of the claim, and he/she will not hold ICICI Bank responsible in any manner whether for compensation, recovery of compensation, processing of claims or for any reason whatsoever.
Fcuk You!
The reason for this desperate measure is a serious cost-benefit analysis. Some of the factors that influenced this:
1. First and foremost, no matter how bad the risk is for a CC company, it simply doesnt justify an interest rate of 3%-4% per month!
2. The banks have non-standard days of billing, hence its' sometimes difficult to keep track of which bill is due when, especially when the number of credit cards you hold reaches double digits.
3. There is no graded interest payment schemes, so if you default by a day or 30 it will still carry the same penalty! At 3%-4% its' quite a crime that such a system is allowed to be practiced in India.
4. The eagerness with which Credit Cards are issued, only goes to show that this product operates via a PUSH model, rather than a person actually needing to own one. I realised this late, but eventually, that ever since I joined a business school, credit cards have been pushed into my wallet under the guise of "lifetime-free" schemes.
5. Many shops and establishments in Mumbai charge an extra 2% for purchases made using credit cards, so do fuel-stations, but under the guise of service tax.
6. Now, for the most important reason, I'm really not comfortable with the idea that some goons are gonna come looking for me asking me to repay paltry sums like 10K odd. That is the ugliest side of Indian Banking Industry, many thumbs down to ICICI and likes which have employed these tactics (see citation below).
ICICI Bank Credit Card - Terms & Conditions (Retrived on Independence Day-2007)
(d) DEFAULT AND CIRCUMSTANCES
(i) If the Cardholders fails to pay at least the Minimum Amount Due as mentioned in the Statement on or before the Payment Due Date, ICICI Bank shall be entitled to disclose information relating to days past due (“dpd”) of the Cardholder to credit information bureaus / agencies (specifically authorized by RBI). A notice shall be deemed to have been given to the Cardholder by ICICI Bank by informing the Cardholder of the disclosures of information relating to dpd status of the Cardholder through Statements. The time period between statement date and the payment due date of the credit card shall be construed to be the notice period for such reporting of the Cardholder.
(ii) ICICI Bank reports the credit/repayment history of the Cardholders to bureaus/agencies in terms of the dpd. The dpd status will indicate the number of days the Cardholder has not cleared his dues to ICICI Bank beyond the due date. The updated status of the Cardholder will be sent to the bureaus/agencies on pre decided regular intervals and thus there will be no withdrawal of the default report except in the case of disputes having been resolved in favor of the Cardholder.
(iii) Recovery procedure in the case of default: ICICI Bank shall be entitled, at the sole risk and cost of the Cardholder, to engage one or, more person(s) to collect the Cardholder’s dues and/or to enforce any security provided by the Cardholder, and ICICI Bank may (for such purposes) furnish to such person(s) such information, facts and figures pertaining to the Cardholder and the security as ICICI Bank deems fit. ICICI Bank may also delegate to such person(s) the right and authority to perform and execute all acts, deeds, matters and things connected therewith, or incidental thereto, as ICICI Bank deems fit.
(iv) Recovery of dues in the case of death/permanent incapacitance of Cardholder: The whole of the outstanding balance on the Card Account, together with the amounts of any outstanding Card transactions, effected but not yet charged to the Card Account, shall become immediately due and payable in full to ICICI Bank, by the Cardholder, his/her successors, nominees, legal heirs in the event of his/her death (after adjustment of credit shield benefit if subscribed by the Cardholder) or insolvency or winding up of the business of the Cardholder.
(v) Insurance cover for Cardholder (optional) and date of activation of policy:
The Cardholder may be offered various Insurance Benefits from time to time by ICICI Bank through a tie up with the Insurance Company, only upon the Cardholder opting for such a benefit. The date of activation of such policy will be communicated through the website. The Cardholder specifically acknowledges that in all cases of claim, the Insurance Company will be solely liable for settlement of the claim, and he/she will not hold ICICI Bank responsible in any manner whether for compensation, recovery of compensation, processing of claims or for any reason whatsoever.
Fcuk You!
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Quack Homeopaths!
I thought I knew! Then I discovered this video, it features James Randi, the famous "Psychic Demystifier", exposing Homeopathy with sound scientific logical and rational explanations.
I simply could not believe it at first, then a bit of googling around Avogadro constant, HomeoWatch, and many more rational articles later, it was quite astounding to learn the amount of serious criminal acts that were being carried out under the guise of Medical Practice. Shameful, disgraceful and henious, are few words that would best describe it...why blame terrorists, these organized criminals are even worse!
Why go further, even Dr. Batras', and institution close home is shamelessly advertising the "Healing Powers" of Homeopathy. Powers of what? Placebo?
I guess its' a very complicated world that we live in, to really accept the means of living such humans have accepted!
I simply could not believe it at first, then a bit of googling around Avogadro constant, HomeoWatch, and many more rational articles later, it was quite astounding to learn the amount of serious criminal acts that were being carried out under the guise of Medical Practice. Shameful, disgraceful and henious, are few words that would best describe it...why blame terrorists, these organized criminals are even worse!
Why go further, even Dr. Batras', and institution close home is shamelessly advertising the "Healing Powers" of Homeopathy. Powers of what? Placebo?
I guess its' a very complicated world that we live in, to really accept the means of living such humans have accepted!
Saturday, June 16, 2007
Why India's not as hot as China?
Blame it on religion or blame it on corruption, eitherway, India is a far cry than China when it comes to "exciting opportunities" in terms Investment. I simply see no reason why the zillions being poured into India would make any difference to the nation itself.
Friday, June 08, 2007
Cheeni Kum
"You absolute horror of a human being" - Simon Bishop in As Good as it Gets.
God knows why Indian directors try to adapt English movies into Hindi. They forget the 200 years of cultural differences cannot be bridged in a day just so that their movie works!
No offence, Mr. Director & Mr. Bachhan!
Cheeni Kum sucks as a poor (bottom feeder poor) adaptation of a movie that I love every celluloid inch of. The very first 5-10 minutes of Cheeni Kum were enough to give me the source of this supposed masterpiece.
Call me frustrated, but I really havent accepted Tabu as an actress, I feel she lies in that vast twilight zone that always gets ignored for glamour and the goodies associated with charming lady leads. She lacks all of it. Her guise of good acting is highly questionable with single frequency dialogues, little voice modulation and no screen presence. Even then, I felt bad for her, she's portrayed rather crudely, and rather weak. Sorely missing is the dilemma that Carol undergoes as the movie goes along, that I felt was the key ingredient of an outright mis-match. Here we have this character going ga-ga like a 15 year old as if she's in love with a 17-year old.
Amitabh Bachhan, get over it dude. There is so much this man can offer, however he cannot possibly make a difference when the only directors that wish to employ him are those that wanna get noticed.
If only AB had a Madhuri Dixit or Raveena Tandon, I'm sure he'd have poured his heart out, but with Tabu standing next to you, there would certainly be a limit to the amount of passion you can portray.
Also, this movie makes cunning use of such rickshaw (crowd) pullers phrases like condoms, sexy, etc etc.
I wish someone bashes the producer-director for portraying the child-character the way they did.
Lastly, the movie tries to add a fourth (or fifth if you count the little neighbour), Paresh Rawal, whos utterly wasted as Tabu's dad. Shows how bad a director can get...
My serious opinion, do not watch this movie, rent out a "As good as it gets" DVD, even if you've watched it a zillion times. It'd be worth much more than the money you'd spend on this illogical inspiration.
Other reviews: Cheeni Kum : outlookindia.com
God knows why Indian directors try to adapt English movies into Hindi. They forget the 200 years of cultural differences cannot be bridged in a day just so that their movie works!No offence, Mr. Director & Mr. Bachhan!
Cheeni Kum sucks as a poor (bottom feeder poor) adaptation of a movie that I love every celluloid inch of. The very first 5-10 minutes of Cheeni Kum were enough to give me the source of this supposed masterpiece.
Call me frustrated, but I really havent accepted Tabu as an actress, I feel she lies in that vast twilight zone that always gets ignored for glamour and the goodies associated with charming lady leads. She lacks all of it. Her guise of good acting is highly questionable with single frequency dialogues, little voice modulation and no screen presence. Even then, I felt bad for her, she's portrayed rather crudely, and rather weak. Sorely missing is the dilemma that Carol undergoes as the movie goes along, that I felt was the key ingredient of an outright mis-match. Here we have this character going ga-ga like a 15 year old as if she's in love with a 17-year old.
Amitabh Bachhan, get over it dude. There is so much this man can offer, however he cannot possibly make a difference when the only directors that wish to employ him are those that wanna get noticed.
If only AB had a Madhuri Dixit or Raveena Tandon, I'm sure he'd have poured his heart out, but with Tabu standing next to you, there would certainly be a limit to the amount of passion you can portray.
Also, this movie makes cunning use of such rickshaw (crowd) pullers phrases like condoms, sexy, etc etc.
I wish someone bashes the producer-director for portraying the child-character the way they did.
Lastly, the movie tries to add a fourth (or fifth if you count the little neighbour), Paresh Rawal, whos utterly wasted as Tabu's dad. Shows how bad a director can get...
My serious opinion, do not watch this movie, rent out a "As good as it gets" DVD, even if you've watched it a zillion times. It'd be worth much more than the money you'd spend on this illogical inspiration.
Other reviews: Cheeni Kum : outlookindia.com
Saturday, June 02, 2007
United 93
I made a big mistake by deciding to "sneak preview" this movie at 3:00 am on a saturday night. I ended up not only watching it completely, but spending another 3 hours surfing the internet on follow-ups.
Assuming that the movie captures the "reality" of what happened, I came across a few things that are really don't quite fit!"
1. Professional American ATC, NEADS and Defence officials are shown in a state of panic: This
is the one of the most difficult to digest aspect of the movie. See its' about culture, a way of life. Americans came up with an MBA degree (formalizing management education), they have schools/colleges imparting the highest standards of education, corporates practising the best form of strategies and citizens who are rightfully proud of their nation. So what would explain the serious delay in "Action" while UA93 was going haywire all over the radar screen.
2. Commercial flights fly with a difference of 1000 feet on air-corridors, and UA93 was all but following it. UA93 was airborne for atleast another 35 minutes, after the hijack started.
3. A F16 flying full speed could have reached the airplane, that it didnt, is another matter...
My sincere well-wishes to the victims' families. My love and regards to all affected directly and in-directly by this tragedy.
Let's build a world upon Forgiveness & Tolerance.
Assuming that the movie captures the "reality" of what happened, I came across a few things that are really don't quite fit!"
1. Professional American ATC, NEADS and Defence officials are shown in a state of panic: This
is the one of the most difficult to digest aspect of the movie. See its' about culture, a way of life. Americans came up with an MBA degree (formalizing management education), they have schools/colleges imparting the highest standards of education, corporates practising the best form of strategies and citizens who are rightfully proud of their nation. So what would explain the serious delay in "Action" while UA93 was going haywire all over the radar screen.
2. Commercial flights fly with a difference of 1000 feet on air-corridors, and UA93 was all but following it. UA93 was airborne for atleast another 35 minutes, after the hijack started.
3. A F16 flying full speed could have reached the airplane, that it didnt, is another matter...
My sincere well-wishes to the victims' families. My love and regards to all affected directly and in-directly by this tragedy.
Let's build a world upon Forgiveness & Tolerance.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Maya Dolas Photo
While the movie Shootout at Lokhandwala is receiving great reception. I was fascinated by the character, that Vivek plays, Maya Dolas. A horrible human being, but nevertheless memorable! So after scouting the internet for a while, I was finally able to find his old photo on mid-day.com website. [1]
Notice the blue cross, it probably was placed after he was shot down at Lokhandwala.
One question keeps coming to my mind, did he represent the Imbalance that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh referred to in his speech to CII? [2]
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Real Estate Investments Demystified
Lately, I've been contemplating the value-rewards proposition of investments aimed to fund my retirement. I looked at various options, however the real-estate boom has been so strong I began giving it a serious thought.
Very quickly, however I realised the sheer Opportunity Cost involved and has made me wonder Why anyone ever contemplates treating "Housing" Property as Investment Grade, leave aside Retirement Grade?
Lets analyse this "Opportunity Cost" element by considering a simple case. Imagine, a simple flat costing a paltry (4MM /or 40 Lacs) and is fully financed. You are looking at an "Net-EMI" of well over 45k p.m., but assuming the tax saver element (12.5k p.m), any rent you receive by letting out (~10k p.m.) and adjusting for society maintainence, repairs, pest-control, etc. we shall assume a NET monthly outgoing of 30k p.m towards this property. I do not know much about the direction Indian Salaries shall take, but sure do know that the purchasing power of Indians is headed North. So, you happily keep paying the "Net-EMI" till the maturity of the Loan, which would definitely be longer than the term you sign initially (interest rates are also headed north in the short term).
Now the question is what would you have after a period of 20-30 years?
The answers' quite simple you'd have a 20-30 yr old flat and ZERO - ZILCH - SHUNYA liquid assets. You can dispose off the property, however keep in mind, the price would likely be equal to current prices, if not less. Property prices are dependent on various factors current boom is due to Demand-Supply gap, doubling salaries, foreign investments are key drivers. However with rupee at its' all time low, it's envitable that it strengthens over a long term (20-30 years), and it means purchasing power of dollar weakens against the rupee. In such a scenario, investments in India would no longer be attractive, plus we'd have transformed into a semi-developed nation at the very least which means even lower interest rate. India would have a far better Credit Rating, and lesser Interest Rate. When that happens, you need to have Cold Cash, to be the king, not an old house, in an old building, with multiple tenant having multiple agenda.
Instead lets' look at an alternative scenario. Instead of using the 30k p.m. as "Net-EMI", you can use to periodically buy any / all of the following and creating a risk-averse basket, targetting roughly 12% p.a.
- Govt Bonds of those zillion "developing countries" (~10% p.a.)
- Corporate Bonds (12-15% p.a.)
- Mutual Funds (05%-50%)
- Stocks (-100% to 100%)
- Another gazillion investment options that our developing economy has made available.
With such a basket the portfolio is easily reaches a figure of 1.4 crores (15 yrs), 2.8 crores (20 yrs), 5.3 crores (25 yrs) and 10 crores (30 yrs). that's about the time retirement starts if you are about 30 now.
So clearly a piece of land + house in far off places, or a flat in one of our cities is not what an "Investment" is supposed to deliver, its' liquid assets, that you'd need when your second-innings begin.
Why waste in such a haste? Think Long Term!
Very quickly, however I realised the sheer Opportunity Cost involved and has made me wonder Why anyone ever contemplates treating "Housing" Property as Investment Grade, leave aside Retirement Grade?
Lets analyse this "Opportunity Cost" element by considering a simple case. Imagine, a simple flat costing a paltry (4MM /or 40 Lacs) and is fully financed. You are looking at an "Net-EMI" of well over 45k p.m., but assuming the tax saver element (12.5k p.m), any rent you receive by letting out (~10k p.m.) and adjusting for society maintainence, repairs, pest-control, etc. we shall assume a NET monthly outgoing of 30k p.m towards this property. I do not know much about the direction Indian Salaries shall take, but sure do know that the purchasing power of Indians is headed North. So, you happily keep paying the "Net-EMI" till the maturity of the Loan, which would definitely be longer than the term you sign initially (interest rates are also headed north in the short term).
Now the question is what would you have after a period of 20-30 years?
The answers' quite simple you'd have a 20-30 yr old flat and ZERO - ZILCH - SHUNYA liquid assets. You can dispose off the property, however keep in mind, the price would likely be equal to current prices, if not less. Property prices are dependent on various factors current boom is due to Demand-Supply gap, doubling salaries, foreign investments are key drivers. However with rupee at its' all time low, it's envitable that it strengthens over a long term (20-30 years), and it means purchasing power of dollar weakens against the rupee. In such a scenario, investments in India would no longer be attractive, plus we'd have transformed into a semi-developed nation at the very least which means even lower interest rate. India would have a far better Credit Rating, and lesser Interest Rate. When that happens, you need to have Cold Cash, to be the king, not an old house, in an old building, with multiple tenant having multiple agenda.
Instead lets' look at an alternative scenario. Instead of using the 30k p.m. as "Net-EMI", you can use to periodically buy any / all of the following and creating a risk-averse basket, targetting roughly 12% p.a.
- Govt Bonds of those zillion "developing countries" (~10% p.a.)
- Corporate Bonds (12-15% p.a.)
- Mutual Funds (05%-50%)
- Stocks (-100% to 100%)
- Another gazillion investment options that our developing economy has made available.
With such a basket the portfolio is easily reaches a figure of 1.4 crores (15 yrs), 2.8 crores (20 yrs), 5.3 crores (25 yrs) and 10 crores (30 yrs). that's about the time retirement starts if you are about 30 now.
So clearly a piece of land + house in far off places, or a flat in one of our cities is not what an "Investment" is supposed to deliver, its' liquid assets, that you'd need when your second-innings begin.
Why waste in such a haste? Think Long Term!
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Airlines Unlimited
My Collection of airplanes. I've collected
about 4 Dragon-Air mammoths, the big-four:
- Boeing B747-400 in Air India livery
- Boeing B777-300 in Singapore Airlines livery
- Airbus A380 in Emirates livery
- Airbus A340-600 in Iberia livery.
My favourite amongst those is by far the Jumbo, nothing beats the grace of this fat lady.
The obsession with airliners doesnt seem to go away, the majestic 747 or the dashing SU-MKI are what dreams are made of!
about 4 Dragon-Air mammoths, the big-four:- Boeing B747-400 in Air India livery
- Boeing B777-300 in Singapore Airlines livery
- Airbus A380 in Emirates livery
- Airbus A340-600 in Iberia livery.
My favourite amongst those is by far the Jumbo, nothing beats the grace of this fat lady.
The obsession with airliners doesnt seem to go away, the majestic 747 or the dashing SU-MKI are what dreams are made of!
Summer 07
Raigad! That's where we were, a week after our first anniversary. Although we were 
seriously constrained for time, we managed to pack our bags and drive on to a wonderful Trip. The drive was from Mumbai - Karnala Bird Sanctuary - Kolad - Mahad - Raigad - Kolad - Nagothane (got lost ;) didnt listen to my navigator) - Kolad - Phansad Bird Santuary - Murud - Alibaug - Panvel - Mumbai.
A total of 450 Kms, of smooth road, sometimes adjoining a dense forest, sometimes coconut and mango farm houses, and the very best part, a beach highway from Murud to Alibaug. The highlights were the two days fishing, boating and back to basics holiday at Doctors' Farm, Raigad Fort, Murud Janjira Fort, Murud Beach (first time Sony went completely submerged!) and a whole lot of people we met on our way!
seriously constrained for time, we managed to pack our bags and drive on to a wonderful Trip. The drive was from Mumbai - Karnala Bird Sanctuary - Kolad - Mahad - Raigad - Kolad - Nagothane (got lost ;) didnt listen to my navigator) - Kolad - Phansad Bird Santuary - Murud - Alibaug - Panvel - Mumbai.A total of 450 Kms, of smooth road, sometimes adjoining a dense forest, sometimes coconut and mango farm houses, and the very best part, a beach highway from Murud to Alibaug. The highlights were the two days fishing, boating and back to basics holiday at Doctors' Farm, Raigad Fort, Murud Janjira Fort, Murud Beach (first time Sony went completely submerged!) and a whole lot of people we met on our way!
Monday, April 02, 2007
Kudos RBI / Goodbye congress
The RBI has done it again! Repo rate & CRR get adjusted once again, even as the two economists , viz. Santa Singh and P. Idli Dosa Sambaram pave a way for a great Indian slowdown.
Welcome to earth guys! Uttar Pradesh will soon be lost, Goa and other states in-line to go for polls will follow. Unfortunately this means the horizon is painted saffron!
Worst news would be the two digit growth figures that China/Korea/Asean or even a pity Bangladesh are likely to return this year...the famed FIIs (minus the mafia ofcourse) will exit the Indian markets leaving a gaping hole to suck out all the hot gas from the Real Estate and the Economy overall.
Update: UP is indeed lost, it's BSP (former BJP ally) that's swept polls. Congress, SP even BJP have one honourable democratic function in UP, to form and be part of the opposition.
Welcome to earth guys! Uttar Pradesh will soon be lost, Goa and other states in-line to go for polls will follow. Unfortunately this means the horizon is painted saffron!
Worst news would be the two digit growth figures that China/Korea/Asean or even a pity Bangladesh are likely to return this year...the famed FIIs (minus the mafia ofcourse) will exit the Indian markets leaving a gaping hole to suck out all the hot gas from the Real Estate and the Economy overall.
Update: UP is indeed lost, it's BSP (former BJP ally) that's swept polls. Congress, SP even BJP have one honourable democratic function in UP, to form and be part of the opposition.
Price discovery tactics of Real Estate Sharks
Have a look at the below, you'd find a tactic being increasingly used by Real Estate Brokers, to discover the "fair" price of property in the absence of complete lack of economics.
The tactics are fairly simple, place multiple ads on such online sites and judge the right amount buyers are willing to part with by finding out which listing got more eyeballs.
Good luck guys, you are entering full speed into a disaster! The falls' gonna be harder with each speculative rupee being added to every property!
The tactics are fairly simple, place multiple ads on such online sites and judge the right amount buyers are willing to part with by finding out which listing got more eyeballs.
Good luck guys, you are entering full speed into a disaster! The falls' gonna be harder with each speculative rupee being added to every property!
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Ban Participatory Notes!
The Finance Ministry and $EBI are keeping a dark secret!
It's an open fact that "Participatory notes" are favourites of miscreants, terrorists and more importantly black-marketeers to "indulge" in speculative activity on Indian Stock Markets. Although Reserve Bank of India and CPI (M) are of the same view but for some unknown reasons, the FM & $EBI are unwilling to see reason enough to believe in it.
It's an open fact that "Participatory notes" are favourites of miscreants, terrorists and more importantly black-marketeers to "indulge" in speculative activity on Indian Stock Markets. Although Reserve Bank of India and CPI (M) are of the same view but for some unknown reasons, the FM & $EBI are unwilling to see reason enough to believe in it.
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Mumbai Realty : Somethings' gotta give!
The bulls and bears are running at full pace! A clash is imminent!
Bulls: The super cool realty rate index. It took NASA 25 years to reach space, the Mumbai Real Estate developers & brokers took just 2 years to do so! Hell the prices keep going north, and appear to have no ceiling, or is it?
Bears: The interest rate index. Kudos to RBI, there is someone lending ears to the plight of Indians, albeit indirectly! There are three major developments, a. Interest rates have been hiked once more, b. NRI deposit rates have been cut and c. NRI's are eligible for a maximum of 20 Lac of Home Loans.
Ok, personal feelings aside, the interesting part is that since the two indexes are about to clash its' gonna the effects could either send Realty into a downward spiral, and cause atleast a blip in the growth story. Either way the interest rates CANNOT keep going high while sustaining the boom.
Update: Commercial real-estate is falling nationwide, except Mumbai ( for how long?)
Bulls: The super cool realty rate index. It took NASA 25 years to reach space, the Mumbai Real Estate developers & brokers took just 2 years to do so! Hell the prices keep going north, and appear to have no ceiling, or is it?
Bears: The interest rate index. Kudos to RBI, there is someone lending ears to the plight of Indians, albeit indirectly! There are three major developments, a. Interest rates have been hiked once more, b. NRI deposit rates have been cut and c. NRI's are eligible for a maximum of 20 Lac of Home Loans.
Ok, personal feelings aside, the interesting part is that since the two indexes are about to clash its' gonna the effects could either send Realty into a downward spiral, and cause atleast a blip in the growth story. Either way the interest rates CANNOT keep going high while sustaining the boom.
Update: Commercial real-estate is falling nationwide, except Mumbai ( for how long?)
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Apartments in Mumbai (Suburbs!) expensive than Chicago!
Have a hearty laugh!
We Indians earning in rupees thats' valued at 1:44 to a dollar have to spend much more to buy an apartment in Mumbai's far-western suburb like Goregaon than a average American who has to shell out much lower to buy a bigger, grander and luxurious home in a state like Chicago!
Ironic? No it's the shameful greed of developers, and government apathy at work!
Chicago Grand House (Rs. 1,43,00,000)
4 BHK - 3500 sq ft+ Grand House, with Garden (Many more such properties, click here )
Goregaon Apartment (Rs. 1,80,11,914)
3 BHK - 2255 sq ft measly Apartment
Think twice before a government as greedy, and as corrupt like this is again voted to power!
We Indians earning in rupees thats' valued at 1:44 to a dollar have to spend much more to buy an apartment in Mumbai's far-western suburb like Goregaon than a average American who has to shell out much lower to buy a bigger, grander and luxurious home in a state like Chicago!
Ironic? No it's the shameful greed of developers, and government apathy at work!
Chicago Grand House (Rs. 1,43,00,000)
Goregaon Apartment (Rs. 1,80,11,914)3 BHK - 2255 sq ft measly Apartment
Think twice before a government as greedy, and as corrupt like this is again voted to power!
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
Respected Sir,
"A desperate starving man will always pay more for a meal than a well fed fat man"
I am writing this letter out of desperation, because, the housing sector in Mumbai is heading towards a catastrophic human disaster. Why are NRIs/Non-Indian nationals’/Corporations/Indian Investors ("Sharks") being allowed a free run in Indian housing sector? Since when did the housing sector start to become a commodity that could be sold in an auction-like manner?
Sir, I am salaried class person, part of the value-industry that is bringing dollars toIndia
Sir, the situation is quite obvious, Indian population has always had a very-high demand for housing. The supply, albeit, has never quite kept pace. To make matters worse now, the demand is now further increased due to buying by these "Sharks", merely for the sake of Investment. Sir, this demand from outsideIndia
Sir, is this right forIndia India
Sir, my only request to you is to not look at the Housing Sector with an Economics or Trade viewpoint, rather this subject needs to be given a Humanitarian and Socialist ear and mind.
Sir, to conclude, I would just ask you this: What would've Mahatma Gandhi done if he was to see the ground realities of the shameful greed on show in the housing sector of this country?
My sincere regards to you!
Yours' Truly
"A desperate starving man will always pay more for a meal than a well fed fat man"
I am writing this letter out of desperation, because, the housing sector in Mumbai is heading towards a catastrophic human disaster. Why are NRIs/Non-Indian nationals’/Corporations/Indian Investors ("Sharks") being allowed a free run in Indian housing sector? Since when did the housing sector start to become a commodity that could be sold in an auction-like manner?
Sir, I am salaried class person, part of the value-industry that is bringing dollars to
Sir, the situation is quite obvious, Indian population has always had a very-high demand for housing. The supply, albeit, has never quite kept pace. To make matters worse now, the demand is now further increased due to buying by these "Sharks", merely for the sake of Investment. Sir, this demand from outside
Sir, is this right for
Sir, my only request to you is to not look at the Housing Sector with an Economics or Trade viewpoint, rather this subject needs to be given a Humanitarian and Socialist ear and mind.
Sir, to conclude, I would just ask you this: What would've Mahatma Gandhi done if he was to see the ground realities of the shameful greed on show in the housing sector of this country?
My sincere regards to you!
Yours' Truly
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Mumbai Real Estate Bubble
For the last few days' I've been property hunting, not the old-fashioned way, but really in "information-age" way!
I've been tracking the stock markets, global markets, builder quotes, industry watchers' opinions, and ofcourse the one important entity, the average man.
Based on initial analysis it is quite clear that unlike a bubble that manifests around a central point, the Real Estate story is quite asymmetrical. Instead of being focussed on a single entity, this ones' largely revolving around atleast five crucial elements, hence its' more of a "Pentabble" than a bubble :)
What am I talking about? Here are the five reasons around which the Mumbai Real Estate story is centered.
1. Collossal Influx of Capital in Early 06 (see Nifty90-07),
there is do denying that post Jul-03 there has been a steady inflow of investments, particulary from FIIs', Hedge Funds, Japanese Funds, Domestic SIP's, Insurance Companies and also to a large extent Indian Investors. This has resulted in dramatic value creation. This has led to a far better than expected surplus of funds for disposal at the hands of Indian Public, NRIs' and Corporations. This surplus has conveiniently found its' way into Real Estate. The presence of this surplus is confirmed strongly by the falling interest rates to ridiculously low levels like 7.0%-7.5% 1.1
2. Indian Developers discovering the London Alternative Investment Market 1.2: Were you left wondering how on earth are developers able to command such high price? The answer cannot be simpler than this, "they source money way too cheap". Imagine a typical builder, he'd have to sell atleast a good part of his project before contemplating entering the market to buy extra TDR. However a smart builder sources funds from Londons' AIM, and then is able to sell ready-made flats in an almost "Auction House" model. They modus-operandi is quite easy actually, there exist a healthy nexus between property developers and estate agents, and its' not so difficult to find "investors" in a market of high capital availability. So you keep doing cross-selling till such time that prices are sky-high and at the same time they are generally accepted to be the real price. Although there is no citation for this, it stems from my personal account of being offered "investor" flats by the builders. These investors are nothing short than speculators who eventually pull up the price of a project, provided the developer can take it to completion by himself (with little support ofcourse).
3. Huge demand: Some basics dont change, there is no denying the fact that there is demand, but to say that this demand was generated in the last 30 months is foolish! This demand has certainly being recognised in that period but I wonder if its' actually being catered to! The demand is the underlying guarantee that prices will shoot-up and is also being used by investors to stay put in their investments.
4. Allowance of FDI in Reality: This has been one of the most disastrous decisions taken by UPA government, in March 2005. The effects of this are being felt more severly than ever! How can a government where communist parties are stakeholders make such a blunder? To deprive the common (even a middle-class common man) of the right to a good quality housing is the best way to be voted out of power for the current government. The hard work ahead for the opposition is to spread the word, and take this colossal mistake to the general public.
5. Corruption, Corruption and More Corruption: This is the primary source of black money, and this black money is the fuel for Real Estate! An actress who dates a businessman-scion of Raj-era goes on air proclaiming that she only invests in "Real Estate". A wee-bit of enquiries into the same would show the world what an "Heroine" is really made up of!
References & Links:
1.3: Click here for the latest on Mumbai's Real Estate Bubble
1.4: Compare your understanding of the Mumbai Real Estate to the following wiki article.
I've been tracking the stock markets, global markets, builder quotes, industry watchers' opinions, and ofcourse the one important entity, the average man.
Based on initial analysis it is quite clear that unlike a bubble that manifests around a central point, the Real Estate story is quite asymmetrical. Instead of being focussed on a single entity, this ones' largely revolving around atleast five crucial elements, hence its' more of a "Pentabble" than a bubble :)
What am I talking about? Here are the five reasons around which the Mumbai Real Estate story is centered.
1. Collossal Influx of Capital in Early 06 (see Nifty90-07),
there is do denying that post Jul-03 there has been a steady inflow of investments, particulary from FIIs', Hedge Funds, Japanese Funds, Domestic SIP's, Insurance Companies and also to a large extent Indian Investors. This has resulted in dramatic value creation. This has led to a far better than expected surplus of funds for disposal at the hands of Indian Public, NRIs' and Corporations. This surplus has conveiniently found its' way into Real Estate. The presence of this surplus is confirmed strongly by the falling interest rates to ridiculously low levels like 7.0%-7.5% 1.12. Indian Developers discovering the London Alternative Investment Market 1.2: Were you left wondering how on earth are developers able to command such high price? The answer cannot be simpler than this, "they source money way too cheap". Imagine a typical builder, he'd have to sell atleast a good part of his project before contemplating entering the market to buy extra TDR. However a smart builder sources funds from Londons' AIM, and then is able to sell ready-made flats in an almost "Auction House" model. They modus-operandi is quite easy actually, there exist a healthy nexus between property developers and estate agents, and its' not so difficult to find "investors" in a market of high capital availability. So you keep doing cross-selling till such time that prices are sky-high and at the same time they are generally accepted to be the real price. Although there is no citation for this, it stems from my personal account of being offered "investor" flats by the builders. These investors are nothing short than speculators who eventually pull up the price of a project, provided the developer can take it to completion by himself (with little support ofcourse).
3. Huge demand: Some basics dont change, there is no denying the fact that there is demand, but to say that this demand was generated in the last 30 months is foolish! This demand has certainly being recognised in that period but I wonder if its' actually being catered to! The demand is the underlying guarantee that prices will shoot-up and is also being used by investors to stay put in their investments.
4. Allowance of FDI in Reality: This has been one of the most disastrous decisions taken by UPA government, in March 2005. The effects of this are being felt more severly than ever! How can a government where communist parties are stakeholders make such a blunder? To deprive the common (even a middle-class common man) of the right to a good quality housing is the best way to be voted out of power for the current government. The hard work ahead for the opposition is to spread the word, and take this colossal mistake to the general public.
5. Corruption, Corruption and More Corruption: This is the primary source of black money, and this black money is the fuel for Real Estate! An actress who dates a businessman-scion of Raj-era goes on air proclaiming that she only invests in "Real Estate". A wee-bit of enquiries into the same would show the world what an "Heroine" is really made up of!
References & Links:
1.3: Click here for the latest on Mumbai's Real Estate Bubble
1.4: Compare your understanding of the Mumbai Real Estate to the following wiki article.
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